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Fed Rate Cut has Small Effect

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered its benchmark federal funds rate by 75 basis points, its sharpest cut in decades. The markets initially reacted positively to the move, which was intended to shore up sagging confidence in the economy and financial markets. But the next day, most of the gains had been lost, as investors feared both that the recession has already begun and that the Fed is giving up on fighting inflation to battle the lost cause of the economy. In fact, as many analysts feel a recession is a foregone conclusion, the focus may soon turn to inflation, especially given exploding commodity prices and the sagging dollar. The New York Times reports:

"I'm disappointed," said an economist at Citigroup. "It's not as if we're trying to gauge policy priorities on a sunny day. I'd like to know how you're going to get inflation in an environment with suffocating financial restraint and pervasive slowing in demand."

Read More: Fed Trims Rates Sharply, Sending the Markets Up

BOC to Cut Rates Further

Ironically, the faltering US economy has induced the Dollar to appreciate against many of the world's currencies. The reasoning is that countries whose economies are tied closely to the US will falter even more than the US during a recession. One of those countries is apparently Canada. As a result, the Bank of Canada has already moved to cut rates by 50 basis points in order to mitigate against a full-blown Canadian recession. All of the economic indicators are already pointing downwards and GDP growth is projected to be a paltry 1.8% in 2008. In addition, exports to Canada's largest trade partner, the US, have sagged noticeably, such that its current account recently slipped into deficit for the first time in nearly a decade. The Bank of Canada is busy plotting strategy, with additional rate cuts in the offing. It looks like the monumental run of the Loonie has finally come to an end. Bloomberg News reports:

Canada's dollar will probably remain within the range it has held since the start of the year because investors are still avoiding risk amid the unsettled U.S. economic outlook. It has traded within about 4 percent of parity with its U.S. counterpart, after surging last year as high as 17 percent.

Read More: Canadian Dollar Falls on Speculation More Rate Cuts Are Coming

Bank Collapses, Dollar Plummets

Over the weekend, Bear Stearns, a prestigious American investment bank, hurriedly scrambled to find a buyer in order to avoid having to file for bankruptcy. While a buyer (JP Morgan) was ultimately secured, investors remained jittery, as the collapse of this magnitude is virtually unprecedented. When forex markets re-opened on Monday, the Dollar crashed against all of the world's major currencies, namely the Euro and the Yen. Furthermore, analysts are now beginning to view forex intervention as increasingly likely. It's still unclear whether the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank (with or without support from the Fed) would spearhead any such intervention. At the breakneck speed at which events are unfolding, however, no one will be surprised if a plan is quickly cobbled together. The Wall Street Journal reports:

"Were such intervention to be seen, (the euro) could briefly trade down to $1.55, yet unless the (ECB) is prepared to back up such intervention with a rate cut, intervention will be futile," said [one analyst].

Read More: Dollar's Slide Keeps Pace

The Yen Marches On

In recent periods of Dollar Weakness, all of the major currencies have been quick to capitalize- all but the japanese Yen. After a while, it became clear that the Yen was being held down by carry traders, who sold Yen in favor of higher-yielding, more risky currencies. It was long believed that the only thing that would shake the Yen loose from its moorings was not a Japanese interest rate hike or economic growth, but volatility in capital and forex markets. Sure enough, the explosion of the credit crisis induced a rapid appreciation in the Yen. Yesterday, it crashed through the psychological milestone of 100 for the first time since 1995.

But can the Yen sustain this momentum? On paper, if the Dollar continues to fall, it seems the answer is 'Yes.' However, Japan's economy is extremely dependent on exports. In fact, 50% of its 2007 GDP growth can be attributed to exports. With the Dollar crashing, Japan's exports are becoming less competitive, and its exports to the US (estimated at $150 Billion) are in jeopardy. In addition, Japanese consumers are notoriously tight-fisted, so it's unclear who would pick up the slack if the export sector falters. This begs another question: will the Bank of Japan be forced to intervene in currency markets (like it did in 1995) in order to prevent its economy from dipping into recession? The Wall Street Journal reports:

Its big budget deficit makes a stimulus package more difficult. Intervention -- which Tokyo also tried in 2004 during a bout of yen strength -- would fly in the face of efforts by the U.S. and other nations to let markets decide currency values.

Read More: Japan Economy Quakes Anew As Yen Soars Against Dollar

Currency Traders Dump Bernanke

On January 31, 2006, Ben Bernanke officially replaced Alan Greenspan as Chairman of America's FedeCurrency Traders Dump Bernankeral Reserve Bank. At that time, the EUR/USD and USD/JPY exchange rates hovered around 1.20 and 118, respectively. For the first year of his tenure, Bernanke lived up to investor expectations and burnished his credentials as an inflation fighter by continuing a string of interest rate hikes begun by Greenspan. Fast forward to today, where the US economy is in tatters, inflation is raging, home and equity prices are slumping, and the Dollar has declined to $1.55 against the Euro and 100 against the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, forex volatility levels are climbing rapidly, suggesting that the Dollar's troubles still havn't reached their climax.

Needless to say, currency traders- and a whole host of other investors and analysts- are furious with Bernanke. Many insist that he misled them, by downplaying the seriousness of housing jitters and insisiting stubbornly that inflation isn't a problem. Even now, he is lowering interest rates in order to spur the economy, but at the expense of price stability. As any experienced currency trader can attest, low interest rates and high inflation are a recipe for a weak currency. Reuters reports:

Bernanke "has sacrificed the dollar in an attempt to save jobs and U.S. business," said one analyst. "He had to do something, but at the same time he is only putting off the crisis. We will face tight credit for a decade and we will have stagflation."

Read More: Bernanke rapidly loses fans in the forex world

BOC Lowers Rates

Last week, the Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, to 3.50%. Though the move was widely anticipated by analysts, whose only uncertainty was whether the bank would cut 50 bps or 25 bps, investors nonetheless punished the Canadian Dollar. The reason cited by the Central Bank in its press release accompanying the rate cut was a sagging economy, due in part to a more expensive Loonie and the concomitant decline in exports. In addition, the Bank indicated that it will likely have to cut rates further over the next few months in order to avoid recession. In short, it doesn't look like the Canadian Dollar will upstage its 17% rise in 2007. Bloomberg News reports:

The central bank "has some very dovish words for the Canadian economy. Retaining the full easing bias and saying the risks to growth are intensifying have caught investors' attention.''

Read More: Canada Dollar Falls as Bank Reduces Rate, Signals It's Not Done