Wednesday, June 10, 2009

British Pound Climbs Against Euro as Confidence Emerges

Great Britain poundThe Great Britain Pound hit a six-month high against the Eurozone currency as domestic consumer confidence rose to a two-year high, indicating that recession might soon be over.

The British currency reached the $1.66 mark and the highest level against the euro since last December, after an index of U.K. service industries posted the first expansion in a period of more than twelve months. The Australian government reported that the economy unexpectedly grew in the first quarter, improving traders’ confidence globally that other countries may follow Australia’s economy, posting positive numbers for the next quarters. The pound sterling suffered massively the consequences of the credit crunch, reaching the point of being traded one to one against the euro, but since domestic and international data indicated that the global slump is easing, the pound entered a strong recovery trend.

Two main reasons would be behind the pound’s rebound, according to specialists. The rise of confidence in world markets is obviously helping the pound to reach higher levels, but the fact that the greenback is under pressure could be the main reason behind the British currency uptrend. Even if the national data in Britain is still not very optimistic, the actual drive in international markets is favoring the pound for the moment.

EUR/GBP fell to 0.8594 from 0.8634. GBP/JPY remained stable while GBP/USD rose to 1.6552 from 1.6400.

Dollar Around 09′ Record Low as Risk Appetite Grows

US DollarThe dollar continued its bearish trend against a basket of currencies after a report on U.S. pending home sales posted the third consecutive monthly rise, improving optimism on markets and extending the current risk appetite wave.

Commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar and the Brazilian real continued their rally against the greenback as confidence emerges about the world economic rebound, spurring demand for oil and several metals. U.S. pending home sales report had the highest jump in a 7 year period, and being considered as one of the key factors for an eventual economic recovery, this report fueled demand for riskier assets both in stock and currencies markets, consequently downgrading attractiveness of safe-haven currencies like the dollar and the yen. Since the global recession has been showing solid evidences of easing, the greenback is losing versus commodity-linked currencies like Canada’s dollar, and also against higher-yielding options like the euro.

Analysts affirm that not only the world economic rebound is weighing on the dollar outlook, but also the growing questioning on the dollar’s position as a world reserve currency. Since the beginning of the global slump, multiple statements from different governments and economists suggested that the dollar should be substituted as the main global reserve currency, this kind of declarations bring a certain amount of instability for the greenback, consequently weakening the North American currency.

AUD/USD traded at 0.8196 from 0.8070. USD/CAD remained rather stable at 1.0878 after a sharp fall in the beginning of the week. USD/BRL fell to 1.9230 from 1.9430.

Pound Slides as Traders Consider Current Rally Excessive

Great Britain poundThe pound sterling dropped versus the euro and the dollar, after hitting a seven-month high against the dollar in a sharp rally to be considered excessive, as traders agree it does not reflect the United Kingdom’s economic outlook.

The British pound also lost ground against the yen and the country’s main stock exchange index, the FTSE 100, dropped 1 percent after two days of significant gains. The benchmark measure of U.K. equities interrupted its climb to a five-month high after Barclays Plc lost 13 percent, as investors from the United Arab Emirates sold their shares in worth of 4.1 billion pounds. Even if the pound has reached very low levels in the beginning of the year compared to much higher values it had before the global slump, Britain’s economy has still not showed sufficient signs of recovery that could sustain the pound’s rally for much longer.

Analysts consider the current uptrend weighing on the pound to be related directly to the extreme low levels it hit in the previous months, but as it may not be in a sustainable recovery path, it is expected that traders make profits after 2 days of sharp gains versus the dollar, as occurred during the past week. Without further optimistic reports confirming that the U.K. may soon be out of the current recession, the pound is not expected to climb further against currencies like the euro and the dollar.

GBP/USD traded at 1.6407 from yesterday’s top at 1.6495. EUR/GBP rose to 0.8650 from a previous price of 0.8615.

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    Thursday, March 20, 2008

    Fed Rate Cut has Small Effect

    On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered its benchmark federal funds rate by 75 basis points, its sharpest cut in decades. The markets initially reacted positively to the move, which was intended to shore up sagging confidence in the economy and financial markets. But the next day, most of the gains had been lost, as investors feared both that the recession has already begun and that the Fed is giving up on fighting inflation to battle the lost cause of the economy. In fact, as many analysts feel a recession is a foregone conclusion, the focus may soon turn to inflation, especially given exploding commodity prices and the sagging dollar. The New York Times reports:

    "I'm disappointed," said an economist at Citigroup. "It's not as if we're trying to gauge policy priorities on a sunny day. I'd like to know how you're going to get inflation in an environment with suffocating financial restraint and pervasive slowing in demand."

    Read More: Fed Trims Rates Sharply, Sending the Markets Up