Dollar Rally in 2008?

With the books closed on 2007, analysts are looking ahead to 2008. With regard to the Dollar, market sentiment is surprisingly upbeat, with expectations of a 5-10% appreciation. In blogging circles, the word "oversold" has been cropping up. Commentators cite a mix of technical and fundamental factors in their reasoning. Some economists expect the US trade deficit to decline marginally in 2008 and GDP to grow at 2-4%. These fundamentals, they argue, support a higher Dollar valuation. The price of oil has been singles out as a pivotal input in the US economic forecast. If the price declines by 20% or more, it could offset the still-unfolding housing crisis and provide much-needed support for the faltering economy. he EU could also take steps to support a Dollar appreciation. EU Government and Central Bank officials have voiced concern over the Euro's rise, and could intervene on its behalf via a change in interest rates. BloggingStocks reports:

"So far the ECB's deeds have not matched their words, but one gets the sense the ECB will take actions to strengthen the dollar and weaken the euro in 2008."

Read More: Experts see mild dollar rally in 2008 if economy holds up

FOREX TRADING: Step-By-Step Forex Trading For The Beginner

Getting started in trading currency can be an extremely daunting task for someone with no experience in the forex market. There are many pitfalls out there that can trip up even the most seasoned trader, and it can be easy to become confused and discouraged by the many nuances of currency trading. By following a few simple tips, you can avoid these frustrations and get started on the path to becoming a successful forex trader.

1) Choose the Right Brokerage Firm: The first and most important decision you will have to make is choosing the right brokerage firm. There are many different options available, and some are vastly better than others. As a rule, you should make sure that the institution is a well-established, reputable company, preferably with ties to a bank or other financial institution. Registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is an absolute must, as this is a good determining factor in a brokerage’s legitimacy. Another characteristic to look for is a wide range of forex research tools such as real-time quotes, charts, and professionally written research reports. You want to choose a brokerage that makes available as much information as possible to its account holders, as the more information you have, the more successful you will be in trading. Finally, you should choose a brokerage that has a favorable spread, which is the difference between the buying price and the selling price of a currency at a given moment. This difference in values represents the amount that the brokerage takes off the top of each trade, so a tighter spread translates into more money in your pocket each time.

2) Open Up a Demo Account: After you choose a good brokerage, the next thing you should do is open up a demo account first. An account type that is offered by most brokerages, the demo account has a pretend balance that allows the beginning investor to play around with different ideas and get a general feel for currency trading before taking the plunge with real money. This is a great way to practice trading and learn how to properly research a currency pair before taking a position. As demo accounts usually last for a month, you’ll have plenty of time to gain experience while also learning how the software works so that you can make informed decisions and lightning-fast trades when the time comes. It is important to not rush through this phase of the learning process, to fully maximize this valuable tool that has been made available.

3) Start Small & Learn How to Deal With Your Emotions: Once you have graduated to using a real account with actual money, it is imperative that you start small and not try to break the bank out of the starting gate. Placing calculated trades using the minimum possible amount of currency can be seen as an extension of the learning process that occurred during the demo account phase. Since your own money is being used this time, different emotions will be involved in the trading process, so this is the point at which you can learn how to correctly deal with these emotions before they can affect your trading success. The other thing to keep in mind is that it is a very bad idea to use a lot of leverage right away. Since beginning forex traders inevitably take some losses while learning the process, a margin call right at the outset is very possible for someone who is close to the margin limit, and this can be a disastrous thing. It is much better to trade a lot closer to the cash balance in the account, and to take things slowly at the outset.

By following these tips, you can give yourself a better chance of success at getting started in the world of forex trading. Remember: choose a good broker, learn the ropes with a demo account, and above all, take it slow.

Currency & Forex Trading

Currency & Forex Trading
Forex trading ( FX trading ) is buying and selling the foreign currencies of different countries. There is a similarity between stock trading and Forex trading. Foreign currencies can go up and down with time-dependent volatility, and they act like shares of currency institutions. Like stock prices, you can buy long and sell short another high currency. A successful Forex trader must keep up with the basics of the market to make the most of his investment.Global news and events have important influence in Forex trading. For instance, if there is a new war, forex traders may react violently to the news. A wise investor need to pay close attention to current events. In fact, the best time to trade is when the news is released, because most of the big market will move around the news.Some investors get advice from too many resources. Although it is important to be knowledgeable, you need to take a position. If you are seeking help from a broker, you should not interfere with his strategy. Some plans may have a long gestation period.Don't be overly cautious. You do not need research all the historical trends. It is important to keep your trade simple. Remember, Forex market is at its highest potential in the volatility. Do not go after the small profits all the time. You may end up undercutting yourself.If you discover that your trade may not work out, get out. Some investors make a mistake by staying, because they hope for a reversal.* Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Pauline_Go

FOREX TRADE: How to Read Forex Quotes Correctly?

Reading forex quotes correctly is essential to forex trading but it can be quite confusing for the new comer. Actually, they are quite simple to read and understand. Here is a guideline to reading forex quotes correctly.

Let us look at an example of how a forex rate quote looks like:

EUR/USD = 1.2526

The above looks simple enough, right? This is an example of a foreign exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar.

Do not forget that in all forex quotes, there are always two currencies quoted. The forex quote is displayed such because when you make a trade in forex trading, you are always buying one currency and selling another at the same time.

In all forex quotes, the first currency listed is known as the base currency while the second is known as the quote currency. Forex quotes are meant to show us the price relationship between the two currencies.

The foreign exchange rate gives us an indication of how many units of the quote currency we have to pay to get one unit of the base currency.

The above example shows us that the base currency is the Euro and the quote currency is the US dollar. The forex quote tells us how each currency is trading relative to the other. In order to purchase one unit of Euros you will have to sell 1.2526 units of US Dollars.

It should be easy to understand so far. Now let’s add an additional thing to our example and that is the bid ask spread.

Forex brokers are paid not on the trades placed in the forex market but on the bid/ask spread instead.

We shall add the bid/ask spread to our example above:

EUR/USD = 1.2526/1.2528

This can be simplified to:

EUR/USD = 1.2526/8

Forex brokers make their commissions by selling currencies at a slightly higher rate than they buy them. This is perfectly legal and all forex brokers do it, though the amount of the spread may vary.

As a forex trader, you will be buying at the bid price, which is the first price quoted. You will then sell at the ask price which is the second price listed. This difference between the two prices is called the spread which is retained by the forex broker as their profit on the trade.

In our above example, you will buy at 1.2526 and sell at 1.2528. The 0.0002 (2 pips) will go to the forex broker as a payment for executing the trade for you.

The bid/ask spread is an easy to understand and clear-cut way for calculating trading fees and expenses.

With a good understanding of how to read forex quotes correctly, it can go a long way in helping you achieve success in forex trading

Basics of Financial Market Behavior

Most people try to approach trading or investing by trying to "predict" the future price of stocks, commodities, currencies, or the market indices.

Different people have different methods. Some use fundamental analysis: looking at a company's health, balance sheets, earnings, the economy, etc. Others use technical analysis, trying to decipher trends and patterns in stock charts.

This is the wrong approach. It has been shown repeatedly for several decades that prices are not predictable, other than a general long term rising of the markets (due to the expansion of the country and world's economies. Of course, this long term tendency to rise has only been observed for the past couple hundred years, which means it is not guaranteed to happen forever.)

In any case, the unpredictability of the markets is well documented. One need only look at history. Money manager and traders, amateur and professional alike, have a track record that is no better than simply following an index fund. This has been shown time and time again. Read the book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" for details.

If that's the case, one should just buy and hold an index fund, right?

Not a good idea either. If you buy an index fund at the "wrong time", it's entirely possible you would have to wait years or even decades to make any money. For example, if you had bought the Dow in 1929, you would have waited 25 years to break even. If you had bought New Zealand in 1987 you would have waited seven years.

Waiting a decade to see any return on your investment is hardly an investment.

What's the proper way to approach investing or trading? The proper way to tme your entries and exits according to the following basic tenet:

• When prices go up a LOT (relatively speaking) and FAST (relatively speaking), you can expect them to come down.
• When prices go down a LOT (relatively speaking) and FAST (relatively speaking), you can expect them to go UP.

It is that simple.

How far is far? How fast is fast? To answer this, it pays to compare long term stock charts with short term ones. A good guideline is something called the 50% retracement rule. Google for it. Pick up a book on it. Or look at my other pages on this website to learn more about it.

Here are the other rules to go by:

• Absolutely do not trade on news. News is often late, misleading, wrong, or agenda-driven. See my other posts on this website for details.
• If you are an active day trader, avoid trading important government reports. Do not enter a trade prior to the report, regardless of your opinion. Markets are very volatile during these times.
• Do not attempt to forecast peaks or bottoms. Your trading should only try to catch a portion of the major move, it doesn't matter whether you miss most of it, as long as you make a profit on some of it.

Skeptical? Sound too simple to work? I challenge you to compare your returns trading this method, with any other method you may choose.

Passive investors will benefit GREATLY by being only a LITTLE active in watching the markets and by identifying major moves. Look at daily stock charts often. Look at 10-year charts every once in a while. Identify major moves and the retracements of those moves. Identify vertical zones on stock charts where you can expect to make profits by trading these retracements. Identify probable areas to BUY. Identify probable areas to SELL and SELL SHORT.

Under no circumstances should you just "Buy and Hold" because that's what your investment advisor tells you.

You management of your money should follow these guidelines, whether you actively trade individual stocks or you trade portfolios or mutual funds. The principle is the same and applies to ALL financial markets.

* Article Source: Common Sense Trading.

FOREX TRADING: Fundamental Analysis & Economic Indicators

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.

Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.

International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.

The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.

In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.

FOREX TRADING: Fundamental Analysis on Forex Trading

It has become imperative for every forex trader to learn how to predict the price trend and which method or software is the best.

When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.

Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.

Generally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and rough currency rate.

Keeping in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. Meanwhile, forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Different people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. At the end, some may make huge profit and some lose their money. You can not say fundamental analysis is easy.

Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. For example, when analyzing an economist's forecast of the upcoming GDP or employment report, you begin to get a fairly clear picture of the general health of the economy and the forces at work behind it. However, you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.

Tip: If you are new to do forex trading and do not trade frequently, you can mainly use fundamental analysis for your trading.

Don't disturb yourself by information overload. Sometimes traders fall into this trap and are unable to pull the trigger on a trade. Normally, your first feel is the answer for you to do forex trading. At that time, you are sure which currency is strong and which country's economy is good. The more simple, the more useful.

However, trading a particular market without knowing a great deal about the exact nature of its underlying elements is unbelievable. You might get lucky and snare a few on occasion but it's not the best approach over the long haul.

For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is very important to understand fundamental analysis and use them on forex trading.

* Paul Zou is the blogger of Make Money Online, Online Investment and Work At Home