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U.S. Building Permits Data to Drive USD Trading Today

2009-07-18T07:56:00.002-07:00

The forex market is set to go very volatile on the release of Building Permits data from the U.S. In turn, this is likely to be crucial in determining the Dollar's strength, as this week's trading comes to a close. If the results equal to or higher than the forecasted 0.52 million, then the USD may record a bullish trading session today. On the other hand, if the data is worse than forecast, then the Dollar could possibly fall against its major currency pairs. Traders are also advised to follow Crude Oil prices today, as sudden movements in this commodity may have a strong impact on the USD.

USD - Dollar Drops on Poor Economic Data

Yesterday the Dollar depreciated against all its main currencies crosses. The greenback's biggest drop was against the EUR, as the EUR/USD pair rose above the 1.4150 level. The Dollar also dropped against the Pound and the Yen as well.

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) published the Long-Term Purchases report yesterday. This report measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and U.S long-term securities purchased by foreigners during May. The figures showed a negative balance of $19.8 billion. The data also showed that China's holding of U.S treasury securities topped $800 billion. The gigantic debt has raised concerns that it might have the potential to erode the value of the Dollar in the long term.

Also yesterday, the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, which is used to measure the business conditions in the Federal Reserve district, was published. The report showed a -7.5 mark, which means that the factory activity in the district has contracted for the 10th consecutive month in July. This contributed to the Dollar's downfall as well.

As for today, very important housing data are scheduled from the U.S. At 12:30 GMT, both the Building Permits and Housing Starts indicators will be published. The two are leading gauge of the housing sector in the U.S, and has the potential to severely impact the market. According to current forecasts, the housing sector has shown relatively positive figures in June. If the actual result will be similar or even higher than forecasts, the USD might be able to correct yesterday's slide. Traders are advised to follow the publications, and take advantage of their impact on the market.

EUR - EUR Hits 2 Week High against the Dollar

The EUR continued its bullish trend against the Dollar yesterday, and the EUR/USD is currently trading near the 1.4130 level. The EUR rose against the Pound as well and declined slightly against the JPY.

The EUR climbed against the Dollar as poor data was released from the U.S economy and Crude Oil's prices rose, which further weakened the Dollar. This drove the European currency to a 2 week high against the USD.

The positive data from the Euro-Zone leading nations also supported the EUR yesterday. The French Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in June, showing that fears from deflation are very unlikely, resulting in a temporary relief for the crisis-hit economy. The Italian Trade Balance, which measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during May, rose by 1.19 billion EUR. This has a crucial impact on the Italian economy, which relies greatly on its exporting activity.

Looking ahead to today, the only significant data from the Euro-Zone will be the European Trade Balance. Analysts forecast a 1.2B result, which means that the exporting activity in the Euro-Zone was larger by 1.2 billion EUR from importing during May. If the actual result will be similar to forecasts, it will be the first positive result in 13 months. In turn, this may have a positive effect on the EUR.

JPY - JPY Records Mixed Results against the Majors

The Yen underwent an extremely volatile session against the major currencies yesterday. Although the Yen did not see a sharp depreciation yesterday, it is about to mark the biggest weekly loss against the EUR in two months, following an extremely bearish week. The most significant publication from the Japanese economy was the Tertiary Industry Activity report. The report failed to reach expectations for a 0.3% rise, as the actual result showed that the value of services purchased has dropped by 0.1% in May.

As for now, current expectations are assuming that the Yen may fall against the EUR on speculations an advance in stocks will increase demand for higher yielding assets. The JPY is known as a currency which rises in times of global financial crisis, and it seems that the rising stocks could be a leading sign for the financial improvement which has the potential to significantly weaken the Yen.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Completes Bullish Week

Crude Oil continued to hold its yesterday, and a barrel of Oil is currently traded for $62.70. Crude Oil is currently heading for its first bullish week in more than a month.
Crude rose as a result of two leading factors. One, the bearishness of the USD supported the price of Oil. Crude Oil's prices are valued in Dollars, and thus any depreciation in the USD's value has the potential to further push-up Oil prices. Higher global equity markets also restored optimism that an economic recovery is impending.

An improvement in economic conditions is set to increase demand for Crude Oil, which will of course hike Crude Oil prices. This week might be acknowledged as the first strong sign that investors have regained their faith in Crude Oil as a long-term investment. Traders are now advised to follow the news from the strongest economies and especially from the U.S in order to predict Oil's direction for the coming weeks. It seems that as long as the news will show that the world is pulling out of recession, Crude Oil prices are likely to rise.

Article Source - U.S. Building Permits Data to Drive USD Trading Today

Crude Rises the Most in 3 Weeks

2009-07-18T07:56:00.001-07:00

Crude Oil prices remain steady at above $61 a barrel on Thursday, after gaining 3.4% in the previous session. Oil's gains on Wednesday came after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a bigger-than-forecast drop in Crude supplies last week. And along with a weak U.S. dollar, which traded near a month low against major currencies, this supported the rally in Oil prices. Investors will be keenly watching the weekly U.S. jobless claims data due to be released later on Thursday, for a clue of a possible rebound of the world's largest economy.

USD - USD Plummets as Stock Markets Rally

The Dollar dropped against most of its major currency counterparts yesterday as a rally in global stock markets diminished demand for the safety of the U.S currency. The Dollar traded at $1.4108 per EUR after sliding 1% yesterday and reaching a day's low of $1.4135, the weakest level since July 2nd. However the USD was up against the Yen trading at 94.36 from 93.39 late Tuesday.

Better than expected results from the New York Manufacturing Index and as expected results from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which were released Wednesday put further pressure on the Dollar. However the major mover in the market Wednesday were the equity markets, with U.S stocks rallying sharply following the release of better than expected 2nd quarter earnings from Intel.

It is likely that earnings results will continue to dominate market movements in the following days as the earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America are due later this week. Traders should also follow the release of the Unemployment Claims, TIC Long Term Purchases and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index to be released today at 12:30 GMT, 13:00 GMT and 14:00 GMT respectively as these results may either strengthen or reverse the current bearish sentiment on the Dollar.

EUR - EUR Gains on Renewed Market Optimism

Benefiting from the return of risk appetite and gains in equities the EUR traded at $1.4112 versus the USD, up from $1.3935 late Tuesday. The EUR was also up against the Yen trading at 133.12 up from 130.14 yesterday. The British pound jumped to $1.6425 against the USD from $1.6270 Tuesday.

The EUR was little changed after a report showed Annual Consumer Price Inflation in the Euro-Zone fell 0.1% in June, marking negative inflation in the region for the first time since its creation. The British Pound rose 0.6% versus the Dollar following gains in financial sector stocks. The Pound was little affected by the overall pessimistic economic data released Wednesday from the U.K. The data showed the number of people claiming jobless benefits in June rose at its slowest pace in more than a year; however the overall unemployment rate rose to its highest level since January 1997.

With no major news due to be released today from Europe, traders should follow the data to be released from the U.S as these will have great affect on any USD currency crosses. Furthermore, traders should follow closely the continuing release of the corporate earning reports as they will continue to be the driving force behind the movement in equity markets and consequently the demand for riskier currencies such as the EUR and GBP.

JPY - The Yen Slides as Investors Move to Riskier Assets

The Yen slid against the EUR, trading at 133.01 per EUR after declining as much as 2.1% in its largest intraday loss since May. The Yen was also down 0.8% against the USD trading at $94.25. The drop followed a report that showed U.S. industrial production for June fell less than forecasted and Intel Corp.'s second quarter earnings were higher than estimated.

The JPY experienced a phenomenal rally these past two weeks as investors retuned to the safety of the Japanese currency following the release of poor U.S employment data. However, this rally was snapped Monday with a better than expected start to the 2nd quarter earnings season. The positive earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Intel rekindled risk appetite among investors diminishing demand for the safe haven Yen and in turn pushing them to riskier, higher yielding currencies. With stock markets continuing to rally it is likely the JPY will extend its losses during today's trading as well.

OIL - Oil Prices Rise as U.S stockpiles Fall

Crude Oil continues to climb as stock markets rally and U.S Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger than expected decline. Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as 47 cents or 0.8% to $62.01 a barrel Wednesday. The weak Dollar and huge rally in the stock market following the release of Intel's forecast sales helped boost Oil prices. Crude inventories fell by 2.81 million barrels vs. the expected 2.1million and refineries are operating at 87.9%, the highest since August. However demand is still weak and so it is unlikely Oil prices will reach $70 a barrel again in the short term and it is likely to remain in the $60-$65 range.

Article Source - Crude Rises the Most in 3 Weeks

New Zealand Dollar Tumbles as Fitch Downgrades Credit Outlook to a 'Negative' (Euro Open)

2009-07-18T07:53:00.002-07:00

The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply late into the overnight session as credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the smaller antipode’s long-term credit rating to “negative” and warned the country could fall into a “low growth trap”. A slew of earnings reports from top companies including Carrefour and SAP are likely to guide price action in the coming session.

Key Overnight Developments

• NZD Tumbles as Fitch Downgrades Credit Outlook to ‘Negative’
• New Zealand Consumer Prices Fall to Lowest in Nearly 2 Years
• NZ Manufacturing Continues to Stabilize as New Orders Gain
• Japanese Service Demand Unexpectedly Drops on Job Losses

Critical Levels

The Euro fell in overnight trading, losing as much as -0.3% to the US dollar. The British Pound followed suit, shedding -0.4% against the greenback to test as low as 1.6379.

Asia Session Highlights

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index declined less than economists expected in the second quarter, with the annual inflation rate falling to 1.9%, the lowest since the three months ending September 2007. Forecasts were pointing to a 1.8% result ahead of the release. Transportation and transport supply costs led the drop, -6.6% and -9.5% from a year before. Lower fuel prices and cheaper airfares were likely behind the drop-off: gasoline prices fell 17% from a year before while the average cost of air travel tumbled 21% in the same period as companies slashed prices to entice consumers amid the global recession. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has said that they expect inflation to fall below the 1-3% target range this year but return to desirable levels by early 2010. RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard added this week that New Zealand is likely to recover faster than its main trading partners from the current downturn, boosting expectations that the central bank will begin raising interest rates sooner rather than later. Indeed, overnight index swaps now show the market is pricing in 79 basis points in tightening over the next 12 months, second only to the Federal Reserve that is seen hiking rates by 82bps over the same time frame.

Separately, the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing measure rose to 46.2 in June from 43.1 in the previous month. The result suggests the sector continues to shrink, albeit at the slowest pace in 9 months. New Orders led the metric higher, expanding for the first time since April 2008. In annual percentage terms, new orders and output saw positive growth for the first time in at least 7 months. Manufacturing figures have been stabilizing in most industrial countries in recent months as producers adjust inventories to current demand levels; it remains to be seen if this process will translate into a sustainable recovery going forward.

Japan’s Tertiary Index surprised to the downside, showing service demand shrank -0.1% in May versus expectations for a 0.4% gain. It seems job losses are starting to catch up with the world’s second largest economy even as the effects of the government’s massive 25 trillion yen fiscal package continue to be digested. Consumption is likely to remain lackluster as the unemployment rate continues to climb, weighing on overall economic growth and holding back recovery from the worst Japanese recession since World War II. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan slashed its GDP growth forecast for the 2009 fiscal year and said consumer demand “remains generally weak.”

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled 50 pips in a mere 15 minutes late into Asian trading as Fitch cut its long-term credit outlook for the smaller antipodean nation to “negative” from “stable”. The ratings agency expressed concern over New Zealand’s medium-term growth outlook given its “persistently large current account deficit and rising foreign indebtedness”. Fitch warned that the government may need to implement a “stronger fiscal adjustment” after Prime Minister John Key cancelled tax cut plans on fears of the ballooning public deficit. Fitch Asia Pacific Director Ai Ling Ngiam said New Zealand could “fall into a low growth trap”, an allusion to Japan’s infamous “lost decade” of stagnant economic performance. Fitch added that the volatility of the New Zealand Dollar complicates the necessary adjustments, with the currency “more responsive to global financial conditions than to domestic economic fundamentals.”

Euro Session: What to Expect

The economic calendar looks tame in European hours, with the July edition of Switzerland’s ZEW Survey of analyst sentiment the only notably item on the docket. The metric rebounded sharply in June, registering the first positive reading in close to three years. The forward-looking bias of the survey’s respondents tends to see it lead actual trend changes in the exchange rate, however, so a meaningful near-term impact is unlikely barring a wild deviation from recent figures once the data crosses the wires.

On balance, forex price action is likely to fall in with risk trends once again as earnings season continues, with notable reports due from: Carrefour SA, Europe’s largest retailer; Novartis AG, Europe’s second-largest pharmaceutical firm; Accor SA, Europe’s top hotel company; and SAP AG, the world’s biggest computer services provider.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - New Zealand Dollar Tumbles as Fitch Downgrades Credit Outlook to a 'Negative' (Euro Open)

Dollar and Yen lose safe haven appeal, but not for the same reasons

2009-07-18T07:53:00.001-07:00

As the Dollar and Yen lose their luster for now, partly due to positive news and partly due to political uncertainty (in Japan primarily, but to some extent the US), I want to take this opportunity to rant.

I have been involved in the markets for the better part of 15 years. I started my career as a stock broker and find myself now a staunch advocate of the Forex.

I have weathered turbulence in the markets, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” speech (which ironically sent the markets on the biggest rally in 50 years), the internet bubble burst and now the “biggest recession since the great depression.”

I lived through 8 US presidents, saw two of the greatest leaders – economically speaking – in Reagan and Clinton and saw miserable failures like Carter and the senior Bush.

But, in my life I have never witnessed such irresponsibility and lack of basic understanding of free market thought, as I have with the current president, Barack Obama.

Carter was a failure, not because he held such liberal policies as many would have you believe, he failed because he was weak, in domestic and international relations he was viewed as timid and non-confrontational.

Perhaps, had he been more assertive he would have succeeded in reforming the system to his liking – and I would be blaming him for killing capitalism. And, as much as people compare the two – Obama is not a Jimmy Carter.

We need to look at the core of the man - Carter was weak, Obama is strong. Carter had the support of the US Congress, but was not able to achieve, because he sought bi-partisanship which he did not get.

Obama does not care about what the other side thinks, as long as his side is on board it is fine. But Obama has another tool at his disposal that enables him to push his agenda through, without the help of the Congress, the Czar.

In the US, cabinet members need to go through a vigorous vetting and approval process by both branches of Congress. A Czar is not a cabinet member. First introduced by Ronald Reagan to head up the war on drugs, a Czar has broad powers to do – and answers only to the president.

Reagan created this role because he did not believe the drug war would go on for so long and therefore adding a cabinet post, a move that takes a constitutional amendment, would not be necessary.

Obama however has gone beyond this level, appointing 33 Czars, each with an average salary of $250,000 and annual budget for office and staff of over 10 million. This is the single largest expansion of governmental agencies ever – and the fun part is this is not part of the government as the Czars answer only to the president.

It is shocking – and it is why Obama is not like Carter – he has the power to achieve what he wants, whether congress says yes or no to the idea, he has a back door to his goals if he needs it.

I am not sure if the American public should be more upset at the wasteful 340 million plus that this group is costing them, or the fact that Obama has given powers to a group of people that subvert the system of checks and balances that has made America unique and safe from tyranny.

Congress gave Reagan the approval for this post for logical reasons - quick and decisive action was needed, and waiting for congress to approve each mission was pointless.

Obama has exploited this rule and it will be to the detriment of the US populace. Take for example the idea that his health czar is proposing – taxing the rich 5% to pay for health coverage for everyone else, or his employment czar, extending benefits to the unemployed by and relaxing the rules so that they do not need to be seeking employment while getting the benefits (their rationale for this: “it is a hard job market you know – it might demoralize the unemployed to have to keep searching for a job in this tight market”).

And just how do they pay for this unlimited benefit? You guessed it, taxing the rich. This makes no sense. Why penalize those who work and reward those that don’t? all you do is make the productive less ambitious to be productive and you make the non-productive dependant on a system that is willing to care for them indefinitely – so in turn there is less productivity by default.

In my opinion, you don’t need a stimulus that will give people money to do nothing; you need a stimulus that will spark production – as that is what will save the economy over the long haul.

For Forex traders and Forex Online enthusiasts what does this mean? It means the US is moving in the direction of China and Russia and Venezuela, in which there is a central government that controls all things. So what does this mean for the Dollar? Only time can tell, but it does not look too good.

Dollar retreats again on good corporate news, Euro reverses after German data

2009-07-18T07:51:00.000-07:00

USD

The Dollar slid on Tuesday in very up and down trading against most currencies, after US Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs, reported better than expected earnings and US retail sales surpassed expectations.

This raised hopes for an economic recovery and continued the risk appetite rally that began on Monday. Retail sales rose by .6% after it was expected that a rise of .2% would prevail.

Goldman Sachs, which is one of the most prestigious institutions on Wall Street, was the recipient of nearly 20 Billion Dollars of federal money in December, after posting their worst losses on record. They have since paid back the federal money and still managed to squeak out a profit in the second quarter.

At 10:00PM GMT, the US Dollar was down .35% to the British Pound to 1.6274, down 1.03% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.1385, down .63% to the Australian Dollar to .788 and down .32% to the New Zealand Dollar to .6342. The Dollar did rise .7% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0911.

EUR

In a switch from Monday’s Forex trading session, the euro fell on Tuesday as a result of less than spectacular data out of Germany.

The German think-tank, ZEW, came out with their first drop in consumer sentiment in nine months. Monday the Euro responded well to comments from the European Central Bank President, Jean-Claude Trichet, who eluded to a recovery later this year.

At 11:50PM GMT, the Euro was down .8% to the US Dollar to 1.3936, up .1% to the Yen to 130.17, down .65% to the British Pound to .8556, down 1.55 to the Canadian Dollar to 1.5834, and down 1.1% to the Australian Dollar to 1.7647. The Euro did rise against the Franc to 1.5205.

Pound Slides against Euro, Dollar as Pressure on Prime Minister Rises

2009-06-10T03:23:00.000-07:00

The pound posted the fourth day of losses in a row against the U.S. dollar as a serious political crisis deepens in Great Britain, where Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour party is losing influence significantly.

Negative factors weighing on the pound are coming from virtually everywhere on the political sphere in the United Kingdom and the European Union, making the pound to reverse an uptrend started by signs of economic recovery. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is suffering sequential calls to resign, as his party had the weakest results in the European Parliament elections, reaching just 15.3 percent of voters, a drop of 7 percent from 2004. David Blanchflower, former Bank of England policy maker, affirmed that the central bank may continue its intentions of buying assets with newly created money, in order to rescue the shrinking British economy, adding pessimism to the pound outlook.

As long as Gordon Brown resists to resign, the pound will continue its bearish trend, according to currency strategists. The United Kingdom is in its worst economic moment since the end of the Second World War, and Gordon Brown is considered unable to rescue Great Britain from the current negative scenario. The pound is likely to continue weak, and as long as Brown remains in power, it’s rather improbable that the pound will recover versus the main currencies.

EUR/GBP rose slightly to 0.8738 from a previous price of 0.8743. GBP/USD traded at 1.5868 from 1.5972

Dollar Climbs on Interest Rates Raise Speculations

2009-06-10T03:22:00.000-07:00

The dollar gained versus the main currencies as speculations that the U. S. Government will raise its interest rates by the end of the year, consequently causing a bearish day in equities markets around the world.

High-yield currencies like the South African rand had a negative day against the dollar as the Fed fund futures showed a 40 percent possibility of interest rates raise for the second semester, a high jump from the previous 13 percent chance from a week ago. The yen was the only main currency that did not have a negative day versus the dollar, as domestic favorable news like the falling number of bankruptcies improved confidence among merchants and Japanese investors, making the greenback to end a rally that brought the yen to a one-month low. The U. S. currency also posted sharp gains against the Great Britain pound, as the government crisis in the U.K. deepens, and the future of Prime Minister Gordon Brown is uncertain.

There is a wave of optimism favoring the greenback, according to economists. Several factors indicate for a stronger dollar to come for the following weeks, not only a sequence of positive reports and speculations is raising the traders’ confidence to buy assets in dollars, a consistent sentiment among specialists that the dollar has been excessively sold over the past two months may help the dollar to enter a significant uptrend.

EUR/USD traded at 1.3900 from a previous price of 1.3969. GBP/USD traded at 1.5800 from 1.5981.

U.S. Jobs Report Pushes Dollar Up Against Euro, Pound

2009-06-10T03:20:00.000-07:00

The greenback had the highest rally since April against the euro, pound after a U.S. employment report indicated that fewer jobs were cut than forecasts predicted, fueling investors with optimism towards the North American economy.

The U.S. dollar gained significantly against most of the main world currencies, as the report bringing better than expected news for the employment sector adds to the already growing evidences that the global recession might be ending, and being the United States a key-country for the world economy, favorable news are regarded by traders as an important opportunity to buy assets in dollar, boosting the American currency and stock markets as well. The data on U.S. employment also brought the yen down, regarded as a refuge currency, it was once again hit by investors looking for higher-yielding opportunities.

Analysts say that positive reports that once were increasing attractiveness to high-yielding assets and making the dollar to lose value, now are favorable to the U.S. currency, as a solid economy keep its currency consistent and sustainable. The dollar has been suffering losses since signs of an economic rebound came from Asia, when investors start purchasing higher-yield assets in the equities market and commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie, but a new uptrend might start for the greenback and its economy starts to revive.

EUR/USD fell and closed the weekly session at 1.3967 from 1.4186. GBP/USD traded at 1.5978 from 1.6185.

Brazilian Real Demand Rises as Commodities Rally Strengthens

2009-06-10T03:19:00.000-07:00

The Brazilian currency continued its rally against the dollar, euro, as the demand for commodities continues to rise on improved economic conditions mainly in Asia, spurring demand for assets in emergent markets.

Since the price of commodities rebounded as the global slump started to show its first signs of recovery, the Brazilian currency is witnessing an impressive rally fueled by a combination of favorable factors in the global financial system and economy, to the point that the national central bank eventually buys foreign currency to avoid the real to strengthen excessively, like happened this Thursday. Two-thirds of Brazilian exports are commodities, being these mainly oil, iron ore and soybean, and their price increase is helping the real to hit record highs on a weekly basis, being one of the most profitable currencies for traders since the global recession started to ease, two months ago.

The rise in commodities has been helping the Brazilian Stock Exchange to rebound after a deep bearish trend in which it lost more 30 percent of its highest value before the crisis, and following commodities and stocks, Brazil’s real is showing an unique performance against most of currencies. Analysts reaffirm that as long as the optimism continues, investors will tend to buy higher-yielding currencies like the real, and the growing demand for commodities will continue to boost the Brazilian currency attractiveness.

USD/BRL traded at 1.9353 from 1.9417. EUR/BRL slid to 2.7170 from 2.7530.

Brazilian Real Falls from Eight-Month High as Stocks, Commodities Drop

2009-06-10T03:18:00.002-07:00

Brazil’s Real had the largest drop in six months falling 2.2 percent against the U.S. dollar and declining from an eight-month high, as commodities and stocks declined, reducing capital influx to South America’s most influential economy.

After a rocketing rally that made the real to rise 24.6 percent since March 2, the real tumbled the most in six weeks, after a negative day in stock and commodities markets. The main reason that affected the real’s price this week was the remittance of profits from foreign investors that purchase assets in Brazil’s BOVESPA, the main national stock exchange market, which due to its highly volatile profile, attracts investors that often buy assets in a down market, sequentially selling it after hitting a target price, returning the capital to its country of origin, like happened this Wednesday.

Brazilian specialists relate the U.S. dollar’s gains against several currencies to the real’s decline. Brazilian exporters trade mostly using the greenback, and the outflow of profits from the national stock market also weighed on the South American currency. The real may continue its rally against the dollar, euro and the pound, as long as the commodity market remains heated, spurring demand for Brazilian exports and attracting investors to the stock exchange market.

USD/BRL traded at 1.9640 from 1.9267, the sharpest rise in six weeks, while the EUR/BRL rose from 2.7587 to 2.7811.

Swedish Krona at Six-Week Low as Concerns Rise in Latvia

2009-06-10T03:18:00.001-07:00

The Swedish currency hit a six-week low level after speculations rose that Latvia will devalue its currency, as an attempt to save the country from a deep recession, consequently affecting negatively loans held by Swedish banks in the Baltic Nation.

According to a note posted this week by Riksbank, an economic deterioration in the Baltic countries is an imminent risk to Swedish banking institutions, since Latvia’s financial system is highly linked and dependent on the Scandinavian nation’s funding. Mareks Seglins, the Latvian Justice Minister affirmed that the country’s currency should end the system that maintains it pegged to the euro, and this declaration impacted directly the Swedish krona, causing it to fall more than 4 percent against the euro since June 1. Since Latvia’s independence, Sweden is the main fund provider in the private loan market for the Baltic nations.

The risk of devaluation for the Latvian lat is considered high, according to analysts, even if they expect that a cooperation between the Eurozone and Sweden to maintain the lat pegged to the euro, the pressure is significant and rising. ING Groep NV affirmed that there is a 50 percent chance that the Latvian currency will be devalued during the next 12 months, which could ease the ongoing recession in Latvia, but cause an important impact on the Swedish banking sector and its currency.

USD/SEK traded at 7.6256 from a previous rate of 7.7160. EUR/SEK also fell from 10.9060 to 10.8500.

British Pound Climbs Against Euro as Confidence Emerges

2009-06-10T03:17:00.000-07:00

The Great Britain Pound hit a six-month high against the Eurozone currency as domestic consumer confidence rose to a two-year high, indicating that recession might soon be over.

The British currency reached the $1.66 mark and the highest level against the euro since last December, after an index of U.K. service industries posted the first expansion in a period of more than twelve months. The Australian government reported that the economy unexpectedly grew in the first quarter, improving traders’ confidence globally that other countries may follow Australia’s economy, posting positive numbers for the next quarters. The pound sterling suffered massively the consequences of the credit crunch, reaching the point of being traded one to one against the euro, but since domestic and international data indicated that the global slump is easing, the pound entered a strong recovery trend.

Two main reasons would be behind the pound’s rebound, according to specialists. The rise of confidence in world markets is obviously helping the pound to reach higher levels, but the fact that the greenback is under pressure could be the main reason behind the British currency uptrend. Even if the national data in Britain is still not very optimistic, the actual drive in international markets is favoring the pound for the moment.

EUR/GBP fell to 0.8594 from 0.8634. GBP/JPY remained stable while GBP/USD rose to 1.6552 from 1.6400.

Dollar Around 09′ Record Low as Risk Appetite Grows

2009-06-10T03:16:00.000-07:00

The dollar continued its bearish trend against a basket of currencies after a report on U.S. pending home sales posted the third consecutive monthly rise, improving optimism on markets and extending the current risk appetite wave.

Commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar and the Brazilian real continued their rally against the greenback as confidence emerges about the world economic rebound, spurring demand for oil and several metals. U.S. pending home sales report had the highest jump in a 7 year period, and being considered as one of the key factors for an eventual economic recovery, this report fueled demand for riskier assets both in stock and currencies markets, consequently downgrading attractiveness of safe-haven currencies like the dollar and the yen. Since the global recession has been showing solid evidences of easing, the greenback is losing versus commodity-linked currencies like Canada’s dollar, and also against higher-yielding options like the euro.

Analysts affirm that not only the world economic rebound is weighing on the dollar outlook, but also the growing questioning on the dollar’s position as a world reserve currency. Since the beginning of the global slump, multiple statements from different governments and economists suggested that the dollar should be substituted as the main global reserve currency, this kind of declarations bring a certain amount of instability for the greenback, consequently weakening the North American currency.

AUD/USD traded at 0.8196 from 0.8070. USD/CAD remained rather stable at 1.0878 after a sharp fall in the beginning of the week. USD/BRL fell to 1.9230 from 1.9430.

Pound Slides as Traders Consider Current Rally Excessive

2009-06-10T03:15:00.000-07:00

The pound sterling dropped versus the euro and the dollar, after hitting a seven-month high against the dollar in a sharp rally to be considered excessive, as traders agree it does not reflect the United Kingdom’s economic outlook.

The British pound also lost ground against the yen and the country’s main stock exchange index, the FTSE 100, dropped 1 percent after two days of significant gains. The benchmark measure of U.K. equities interrupted its climb to a five-month high after Barclays Plc lost 13 percent, as investors from the United Arab Emirates sold their shares in worth of 4.1 billion pounds. Even if the pound has reached very low levels in the beginning of the year compared to much higher values it had before the global slump, Britain’s economy has still not showed sufficient signs of recovery that could sustain the pound’s rally for much longer.

Analysts consider the current uptrend weighing on the pound to be related directly to the extreme low levels it hit in the previous months, but as it may not be in a sustainable recovery path, it is expected that traders make profits after 2 days of sharp gains versus the dollar, as occurred during the past week. Without further optimistic reports confirming that the U.K. may soon be out of the current recession, the pound is not expected to climb further against currencies like the euro and the dollar.

GBP/USD traded at 1.6407 from yesterday’s top at 1.6495. EUR/GBP rose to 0.8650 from a previous price of 0.8615.

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Fed Rate Cut has Small Effect

2008-03-20T08:15:00.001-07:00

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered its benchmark federal funds rate by 75 basis points, its sharpest cut in decades. The markets initially reacted positively to the move, which was intended to shore up sagging confidence in the economy and financial markets. But the next day, most of the gains had been lost, as investors feared both that the recession has already begun and that the Fed is giving up on fighting inflation to battle the lost cause of the economy. In fact, as many analysts feel a recession is a foregone conclusion, the focus may soon turn to inflation, especially given exploding commodity prices and the sagging dollar. The New York Times reports:

"I'm disappointed," said an economist at Citigroup. "It's not as if we're trying to gauge policy priorities on a sunny day. I'd like to know how you're going to get inflation in an environment with suffocating financial restraint and pervasive slowing in demand."

BOC to Cut Rates Further

2008-03-20T08:13:00.000-07:00

Ironically, the faltering US economy has induced the Dollar to appreciate against many of the world's currencies. The reasoning is that countries whose economies are tied closely to the US will falter even more than the US during a recession. One of those countries is apparently Canada. As a result, the Bank of Canada has already moved to cut rates by 50 basis points in order to mitigate against a full-blown Canadian recession. All of the economic indicators are already pointing downwards and GDP growth is projected to be a paltry 1.8% in 2008. In addition, exports to Canada's largest trade partner, the US, have sagged noticeably, such that its current account recently slipped into deficit for the first time in nearly a decade. The Bank of Canada is busy plotting strategy, with additional rate cuts in the offing. It looks like the monumental run of the Loonie has finally come to an end. Bloomberg News reports:

Canada's dollar will probably remain within the range it has held since the start of the year because investors are still avoiding risk amid the unsettled U.S. economic outlook. It has traded within about 4 percent of parity with its U.S. counterpart, after surging last year as high as 17 percent.

Read More: Canadian Dollar Falls on Speculation More Rate Cuts Are Coming

Bank Collapses, Dollar Plummets

2008-03-20T08:12:00.000-07:00

Over the weekend, Bear Stearns, a prestigious American investment bank, hurriedly scrambled to find a buyer in order to avoid having to file for bankruptcy. While a buyer (JP Morgan) was ultimately secured, investors remained jittery, as the collapse of this magnitude is virtually unprecedented. When forex markets re-opened on Monday, the Dollar crashed against all of the world's major currencies, namely the Euro and the Yen. Furthermore, analysts are now beginning to view forex intervention as increasingly likely. It's still unclear whether the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank (with or without support from the Fed) would spearhead any such intervention. At the breakneck speed at which events are unfolding, however, no one will be surprised if a plan is quickly cobbled together. The Wall Street Journal reports:

"Were such intervention to be seen, (the euro) could briefly trade down to $1.55, yet unless the (ECB) is prepared to back up such intervention with a rate cut, intervention will be futile," said [one analyst].

The Yen Marches On

2008-03-20T08:11:00.000-07:00

In recent periods of Dollar Weakness, all of the major currencies have been quick to capitalize- all but the japanese Yen. After a while, it became clear that the Yen was being held down by carry traders, who sold Yen in favor of higher-yielding, more risky currencies. It was long believed that the only thing that would shake the Yen loose from its moorings was not a Japanese interest rate hike or economic growth, but volatility in capital and forex markets. Sure enough, the explosion of the credit crisis induced a rapid appreciation in the Yen. Yesterday, it crashed through the psychological milestone of 100 for the first time since 1995.

But can the Yen sustain this momentum? On paper, if the Dollar continues to fall, it seems the answer is 'Yes.' However, Japan's economy is extremely dependent on exports. In fact, 50% of its 2007 GDP growth can be attributed to exports. With the Dollar crashing, Japan's exports are becoming less competitive, and its exports to the US (estimated at $150 Billion) are in jeopardy. In addition, Japanese consumers are notoriously tight-fisted, so it's unclear who would pick up the slack if the export sector falters. This begs another question: will the Bank of Japan be forced to intervene in currency markets (like it did in 1995) in order to prevent its economy from dipping into recession? The Wall Street Journal reports:

Its big budget deficit makes a stimulus package more difficult. Intervention -- which Tokyo also tried in 2004 during a bout of yen strength -- would fly in the face of efforts by the U.S. and other nations to let markets decide currency values.

Currency Traders Dump Bernanke

2008-03-20T08:10:00.002-07:00

On January 31, 2006, Ben Bernanke officially replaced Alan Greenspan as Chairman of America's FedeCurrency Traders Dump Bernankeral Reserve Bank. At that time, the EUR/USD and USD/JPY exchange rates hovered around 1.20 and 118, respectively. For the first year of his tenure, Bernanke lived up to investor expectations and burnished his credentials as an inflation fighter by continuing a string of interest rate hikes begun by Greenspan. Fast forward to today, where the US economy is in tatters, inflation is raging, home and equity prices are slumping, and the Dollar has declined to $1.55 against the Euro and 100 against the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, forex volatility levels are climbing rapidly, suggesting that the Dollar's troubles still havn't reached their climax.

Needless to say, currency traders- and a whole host of other investors and analysts- are furious with Bernanke. Many insist that he misled them, by downplaying the seriousness of housing jitters and insisiting stubbornly that inflation isn't a problem. Even now, he is lowering interest rates in order to spur the economy, but at the expense of price stability. As any experienced currency trader can attest, low interest rates and high inflation are a recipe for a weak currency. Reuters reports:

Bernanke "has sacrificed the dollar in an attempt to save jobs and U.S. business," said one analyst. "He had to do something, but at the same time he is only putting off the crisis. We will face tight credit for a decade and we will have stagflation."

BOC Lowers Rates

2008-03-20T08:10:00.001-07:00

Last week, the Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, to 3.50%. Though the move was widely anticipated by analysts, whose only uncertainty was whether the bank would cut 50 bps or 25 bps, investors nonetheless punished the Canadian Dollar. The reason cited by the Central Bank in its press release accompanying the rate cut was a sagging economy, due in part to a more expensive Loonie and the concomitant decline in exports. In addition, the Bank indicated that it will likely have to cut rates further over the next few months in order to avoid recession. In short, it doesn't look like the Canadian Dollar will upstage its 17% rise in 2007. Bloomberg News reports:

The central bank "has some very dovish words for the Canadian economy. Retaining the full easing bias and saying the risks to growth are intensifying have caught investors' attention.''

Dollar Falls to Record Lows

2008-03-20T08:09:00.004-07:00

Over the last couple weeks, the Dollar has plummeted against all of the major currencies, falling below the $1.50 mark against the Euro for the first time ever. It seems investors are reacting to a spate of negative economic data which are painting an increasingly bearish picture for the US economy. In addition, the Fed seems likely to lower rates further while the ECB will maintain rates at current levels. For a brief period, talk of recession was actually helping the Dollar, as investors predicted that the global economy would be harmed more than the US economy, but it looks like that period has passed. As a result, the EU is growing increasingly alarmed, and the pressure is building for some kind of intervention. AFX News Limited reports:

Euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker said currency markets are overreacting to the short-term outlook for the US economy. " We don't like excessive volatility in exchange rates," Juncker said.

Fed vs ECB

2008-03-20T08:09:00.003-07:00

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its benchmark lending rate at 4%. Meanwhile, America's Federal Reserve Bank has cut rates by 2.25% over the last six months. For years, the ECB existed entirely in the shadow of the Fed and conducted monetary policy accordingly, but in this latest downturn, it seems to have broken free. The reason for the split can be found in the Central Banks' different mandates: the Fed aims to promote growth, while the ECB is charged primarily with creating price stability. Thus, the ECB can easily avoid succumbing to analysts' expectations that it will ultimately lower rates. In addition, while EU politicians are pressuring the ECB to hold down the common currency, the ECB's mandate is actually supported by the expensive Euro because it lowers the cost of imports. The New York Times reports:

Mr. Trichet has long held that central banks do their best work when their threats to raise interest rates deter inflationary actions in the first place, avoiding the need for excessive swings in the benchmark rate. [He] called this concept “credible alertness.”

ML Introduces 5 Currency ETNs

2008-03-20T08:09:00.001-07:00

Together with a consortium of large banks, Merrill Lynch recently formed ELEMENTS, which unveiled five new currency Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs). Before ML entered the market via ELEMENTS, there were only two banks offering currency ETF products: Barclays Capital and Rydex, whose funds are branded CurrencyShares and iPath, respectively. ETNs differ from ETFs in that the former represent a debt obligation whereas the latter represent a form of equity. In practice, however, since the risk of default is relatively low, the two types of securities are functionally equivalent. Both pay interest slightly below the benchmark interest rates of the currencies to which they are connected. The five new ELEMENTS ETNs are separately tied to the performance of the Canadian Dollar, Euro, Swiss Franc, British Pound, and Australian Dollar. Index Universe reports:

Why would anyone choose the new ELEMENTS ETFs? Because they make semiannual cash dividend payments to noteholders based on the interest income. The iPath ETNs, in contrast, incorporate that income into the value of the note ... a kind of "virtual interest" that is only realized when the noteholder sells.

Technical Analysis - The Basics

2008-03-20T08:08:00.002-07:00

Yesterday, the Forex Blog featured a story that explained how to make money when volatility is low. The consensus of the article is that investors must shift their strategy from trading to trending, which requires an adjustment in outlook from short-term to long-term. But given that volatility is low and that currencies often move laterally against each other, how do you know which direction to bet on, and accordingly, when to buy or sell? The answer requires some minor technical analysis, involving two of the most basic tools available: support and resistance. These terms represent approximate price levels within which a specific currency appears to be trading. The significance of these levels is usually arbitrary, and is likely grounded in psychology rather than any real math. Furthermore, once the pattern is spotted, the support and resistance levels often become self-fulfilling, keeping the currency rangebound. But, when, for whatever reason, the currency dips below or rises above the range, it is probably a signal that it is a good time to sell short or buy, respectively. Trading Markets reports:

Though support and resistance are rather basic when it comes to technical analysis, they can be extremely effective for dexterous traders. And really, sometimes, keeping things simple is the best course of action anyway.

How to Profit from Low Volatility

2008-03-20T08:08:00.001-07:00

Based on several indexes, volatility in forex markets is nearing historic lows. How can this be explained, given the enormous daily swings in equity and bond markets? The first explanation is that business cycles, and by extension, monetary policies, are gradually synchronizing across the industrialized world, especially among the USA, EU, and Japan. When inflation rates and interest rates are similar across different countries, this mitigates any theoretical need for changes in exchange rates. The second explanation is that the tremendous growth in forex volume ($3 Trillion per day and rising) is increasing liquidity and lowering volatility.

More importantly, is it possible to profit in a climate where volatility is lacking? The answer is "of course." It simply involves a shift in strategy. When volatility is high, trading is usually the most profitable strategy: using technical analysis and churning your "portfolio" on a daily basis. On the other hand, when volatility is low, then trending is probably the best bet. Don't forget: volatility is not the same as directional movement. If a currency appreciates every day by only a small increment and without any wild swings, volatility is low but the profit potential is high.

Continue reading "How to Profit from Low Volatility" »

Ruble as Regional Reserve Currency

2008-03-20T08:07:00.001-07:00

Two weeks ago, then-First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, commented publicly on a more significant role for the Russian Ruble in the global economy, and especially in the regional economy. Fast forward to yesterday, when Medvedev was elected the next Prime Minister of Russia, which means his ideas on forex are more likely to become policy. Medvedev has argued in favor of turning the Ruble into a regional reserve currency. This would first necessitate liberalizing its forex policy by permitting the Ruble to float freely; it is currently fixed to a basket of Euros and Dollars. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Dollar and the global economy at large, as well as the recent boom in Russia's economy, Medvedev clearly smells an opportunity. Neighboring (former Soviet bloc) countries could be persuaded to denominate their reserves partially in Rubles as well as to consider using Rubles in energy transactions. Reuters reports:

Russia, which receives most of its energy revenues in dollars, buys euros, pounds sterling, yen and Swiss francs to diversify its $478 billion gold and forex reserves, the world's third-largest.

GCC Ponders Revaluation

2008-03-20T08:06:00.002-07:00

The three rules of monetary policy- goes the old adage- are inflation, inflation, inflation. Well, maybe not. But that is certainly the story in the Middle East; Saudi Arabia's official inflation rate is the highest in 12 years, and Qatar and the UAE have witnessed double-digit percentage increases, in annualized terms. Since their currencies are pegged to the USD, however, their Central Banks are unable to raise rates accordingly, leaving them with a tough decision: allow the currency to appreciate or watch prices spiral out of control. It is the same story being told in every developing country that pegs their currency to the Dollar, and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are certainly not exempt. As the ranking member, Saudi Arabia will all but determine if and how the official forex policy changes. An announcement could come any day. The Gulf Times reports:

Mohammed al-Jasser, Saudi Arabia's deputy central bank governor, had said last month that the Gulf Arab states should maintain their currency pegs to the US dollar regardless of rampant inflation in the region or the impact of US rate cuts.

USD: What is the story?

2008-03-20T08:06:00.001-07:00

Recent news reports have painted a downright bleak picture of the US economy. Home prices are now falling. Equity prices are also falling, at an annualized rate of 20%. Meanwhile, energy and food prices are rising, dipping into what little purchasing power consumers can still claim. Somehow, as DailyFX, recently reported, the Dollar has held its own. Their reasoning is that there is a struggle being waged in forex markets between yield and growth. On the one hand are investors who are bearish on the Dollar because of interest rates that are headed downwards, despite already being low. On the other hand are investors who think that yield is comparatively unimportant, since the rate cuts are needed to shore up the economy. While interest rate differentials do not favor the US, the economic growth that they are intended to bring about tell a different story. DailyFX reports:

The only problem with this thesis is that 2 percent interest rates or 100bp is about as low as the market expects the Fed will go. If banks are forced to take more write-offs and the US economy deteriorates further, the Federal Reserve may be forced to go below 1.00 percent.

Rupee Will Face Test in 2008

2008-03-20T08:05:00.004-07:00

While the Chinese Yuan quickly ascended the ranks of the world's most important currencies, the Indian Rupee has not yet made it. But that might change in 2008, as the Royal Bank of India ("RBI") will be forced to decide between a more valuable rupee and price stability. Until now, the RBI has successfully pursued the "impossible trinity of a fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, and open capital account" through judicious use forex intervention and the issuance of sterilization bonds. Now, as prices are creeping up, the RBI has found itself constrained in its ability to hike rates because of the resulting pressure on its currency. Furthermore, the rupee has already begun to appreciate, costing jobs in certain export-dependent (and politically sensitive) industries. The Economic Times reports:

Monetary policymakers have been torn between letting the rupee appreciate and intervening in the currency markets to inject more rupee liquidity which could be potentially inflationary in nature.

Fed in Lose-Lose Situation

2008-03-20T08:05:00.003-07:00

Remember the expression "Goldilocks economy," used to to characterize the Fed's perennial aim of simultaneously pursuing economic growth and price stability? How about "stagflation," a term coined in the 1970s to describe a unique period in US economic history where low growth coincided with inflation. Now, these two scenarios are being juxtaposed as the Goldilocks economy gives way to stagflation. The Fed is trying to delicately toe the line, as equity and home prices sink while prices rise; one index suggests prices have risen over 7% year-over-year. The index more often cited, the CPI, reads 4.3%. Both of these figures exceed current interest rate levels.

What, then, is the Fed's proper course of action, especially as far as Dollar bulls are concerned? If it holds rates or contindfues to lower them, the economy could avert recession but prices would likely continue to climb, eroding the value of the Dollar. On the other hand, if rates are hiked to mitigate against inflation, a recession would almost become inevitable, and the Dollar would feel the drag of capital being pulled overseas. The New York Times reports:

“February may go down in history as the month that the previously indefatigable U.S. consumer finally threw in the towel, beaten by a combination of deteriorating labor market conditions, surging prices for food and energy and collapsing house prices,”

Commentary: Yuan et al Must Appreciate

2008-03-20T08:05:00.001-07:00

Although the Chinese Yuan is ostensibly allowed to fluctuate in value, the reality is that the size of its fluctuations and the pace of its appreciation are tightly controlled by China's Central Bank. Since its currency is still effectively fixed to the Dollar, China is severely curtailed in its ability to conduct monetary policy and must closely mirror US policy. Same goes for the rest of Asia, excluding Japan. While US monetary policy was relatively tight, as it has been for the last five years, this necessity didn't cause too many problems; most of these economies would have kept interest rates high irrespective of the US.

Since the Fed began loosening monetary policy over the last six months, however, many of the emerging economies in Asia, especially China, have been forced into a bind. On the one hand, lowering interest rates is exacerbating the problem of inflation. On the other hand, they want to keep their currencies stable so as not to limit economic growth. In short, Central Banks must determine which is more important: fighting inflation or promoting growth. According to some economists, these economies are so strong, having grown by nearly 10% collectively last year, that they can afford to slow down, if it will result in greater price stability. But the only way to stabilize prices is to drastically raise interest rates, which will put even greater pressure on their currencies to appreciate.

In addition, the Central Banks of Asia have amassed a staggering $4 Trillion in foreign exchange reserves. In the past, this has been a neutral, sometimes profitable activity. Since the Fed began cutting rates, the interest rate differential has been turned upside-down such that Central Banks are now losing money on each unit of local currency they sell in exchange for Dollars. According to one analyst, over $160 Billion has been lost since July 2006, and those losses will mount with each additional intervention.

Iran has Forex Reserves?

2008-03-20T08:04:00.001-07:00

Every month seems to witness the induction of a new country into the pantheon of those with burgeoning foreIran has Forex Reserves?x reserves. The new member for the month of February is...Iran? Most of the attention Iran receives is political rather than economic, but with oil prices recently topping $100 a barrel for the second time, you can bet that Iran will start appearing on the radar screens of more and more analysts. Iran's reserves currently total $76 Billion, which is unimpressive in itself, but represents a 30% year-over-year increase. Of more significance, perhaps, is that Iran is leading the charge against the Dollar by actively diversifying its reserves into Euros. It remains to be seen whether any "non-rogue" countries will follow suit. The Economic Times reports:

Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter and the second ranking in OPEC, has benefited from record crude prices which have helped it to weather domestic economic problems.

Canadian Loonie Defies Logic

2008-03-20T08:02:00.001-07:00

Over the last few years, commodity prices, equity values, and interest rate differentials all favored Canada. By no coincidence, the Loonie rallied to such an extent that it soon reached parity with the USD. The relationship between these trends and the Canadian Dollar seemed so cut-and-dried that few analysts paid attention to anything else. In the last couple months, however, these relationships seem to have suddenly dissolved. For example, as the price of oil has begun to rise again, the Loonie has unexpectedly lost value. Meanwhile, the inverse correlation between risk aversion and the Loonie has lost all validity, such that if the S&P 500 increases, the odds that the Canadian Dollar will also appreciate is essentially an even money bet. The Canadian Economic Press reports:

"The breakdown is still quiet tentative but it’s weakened in the last few sessions. For Canada in particular there isn’t one story in the market. We have several different stories going on at the same time."

China's Trade Surplus Expands Further

2008-03-20T08:01:00.001-07:00

China's trade surplus grew 22.6% year-over-year for the month of January, on top of export growth of 26.7%. If there is any silver lining to what many policymakers would consider bad news, it is that growth in imports is slightly outpacing growth in exports. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to allay the critics, and there are still many of them. The argument remains unchanged- that China is not allowing its currency to rise fast enough. On paper, however, the Yuan has appreciated by 15% since China officially de-pegged it from the Dollar in July 2005. In addition, the G7 failed to scold China in its annual meeting, which suggests that economic policymakers are becoming less concerned with China's forex policy. Ironically, the revaluation of the Yuan is probably boosting the value of of China's exports in the short-term, because other countries are now paying more for the same quantity of imports. AFP reports:

The International Monetary Fund...urged the Chinese government to loosen the reins on the yuan. "We encourage a faster pace of appreciation that would be helpful for addressing China's key economic challenges and would also contribute to preserving global economic stability."

Bernanke Hints Rate Cuts

2008-03-20T08:00:00.001-07:00

In testifying beBernanke Hints Rate Cuts Bernanke Hints Rate Cutsfore the Senate Budget Committee, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of America's Federal Reserve Bank, hinted strongly that further rate cuts would be necessary to stabilize the US economy. Last week, the Forex Blog covered an editorial which suggested that Bernanke knew something about the state of the economy that the American public did not, which his testimony seemed to confirm. Bernanke testified that the Fed is also committed to fighting inflation, but the emphasis was clearly on spurring economic growth. As a result, futures markets are pricing in a rate cut of 50 basis points, projected for the next month. The forex markets were unambiguous about the implications of this development for the Dollar. Thomson Financial reports:

'By highlighting the downside risks to growth, Bernanke confirmed prevailing aggressive rate cut speculation, which currently keeps the dollar under broad pressure,' said Antje Praefcke, currency strategist at Commerzbank.

Israel Considers Intervention

2008-03-20T07:59:00.003-07:00

The Israeli Shekel has surged over 15% against the Dollar in the last six months, and by over 20% in the last two years. Analysts have suggested that the appreciation is due to the strength of Israeli's economy vis-a-vis the US economy, which seems headed for recession. In addition, Israeli citizens have repatriated billions of dollars in capital that had been held overseas and invested it in Israel's financial markets, which in itself, has exerted much of the pressure on the Shekel. There is now a surplus in the balance of payments, which means more capital is coming in to Israel than is being taken out. As a result, Israeli exporters are getting nervous about the perceived consequences of a relatively expensive currency and are pressuring Israeli political leaders to take action. The Central Bank, understandably, is reluctant to do so. Haaretz.org reports:

"Intervening in [the currency] market is risky and inefficient," [said] Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer...earlier this week.

Forex Forecast

2008-03-20T07:59:00.001-07:00

Forex Forecast- try saying that three times fast! The Market Oracle, an online financial publication, has done even better, preparing a one-year forecast for all of the major currencies along with a detailed analysis of the major factors driving each currency in the month of February. The Dollar and Yen are projected to be the strongest performers in this time frame, benefiting from a trend towards risk aversion. It should be noted that this prediction is consistent with news reported by the Forex Blog earlier this week. On the other hand, currencies that have been propped up by the Yen carry trade, namely those of Australia, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa, will face selling pressure. The British Pound is projected to underperform slightly, due to an easing of British monetary policy, which will narrow the interest rate advantage claimed over the US.

Finally, the Euro is something of a wildcard. On the one hand, the EU economy is stagnating, and the ECB has hinted that rate cuts are a possibility. On the other hand, the Euro theoretically stands to inherit a significant amount of risk-averse capital, especially from foreign investors looking for a stable alternative to the Dollar. Accordingly, the Market Oracle forecasts a short-term decline in the value of the Euro but a long-term appreciation.

G7 Ignores Currencies

2008-03-20T07:58:00.001-07:00

In its annual meeting, the G7 virtually ignored the situation in forex markets. In previous years, the G7 used the so-called "communique," which essentially functions as a summary of the meeting, to rebuke China for not allowing the Yuan to appreciate at a satisfactory pace. This year, the RMB has appreciated markedly- by 9% on a trade-weighted basis- and thus, the G7 opted not to apply further rhetorical pressure. In addition, several of the most prominent EU member states had hoped to work a discussion of the Dollar into the communique, but alas, any mention was notoriously absent. Analysts have speculated that this is due both to America's political indifference towards the valuation of the Dollar as well to a disagreement over what the correct valuation should be, if indeed it is undervalued. Thomson Financial reports:

"It was clear a few days ago that there was going to be no change in the (currency section) of the communique and that really spoke of a lack of consensus about mainstream currencies."

Dollar Notches Stellar Weekly Performance

2008-03-20T07:57:00.002-07:00

Last week, the USD recorded its best weekly performance since 2006, rising 3 cents against its chief rival, the Euro. Apparently, analysts are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the effect of the America recession on the global economy. The consensus is now that a dampened global economy will induce a trend towards risk aversion, which favors the world's #1 and #2 reserve currencies, the Dollar and the Euro, respectively. However, it also appears the near-term economic prospects for Europe are less rosy than originally forecast,. Thus, if last week is any indication, the Dollar should receive a larger proportion of risk-averse capital. Reuters reports:

"Despite a torrent of bad economic news the dollar has been on a tear this week, as the currency market recognized the fact that the slowdown in U.S. economic activity is likely to drag down growth in the rest of the G10 universe..."

ECB Holds Interest Rates

2008-03-20T07:57:00.001-07:00

At its meeting last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) held its Euro-zone benchmark lending rate at 4.00%. While the decision itself came as no surprise, analysts were nonetheless waiting with baited breath to hear what remarks would accompany it. Jean Claude Trichet, the Bank's President, eased up on hawkish comments he made the previous month, when he signaled that his primary concern was inflation rather than the risk of economic recession. This month, however, he changed his rhetoric markedly, indicating that the ECB was less willing to preempt rising price levels and would instead shift its focus to the possibility of a 'sharp slowing' of EU growth. Forbes reports:

Our view [is] that rate hikes are definitely off the agenda at this stage and by bringing a greater degree of uncertainty on the growth assessment, the ECB may be getting ready for a shift towards a more dovish policy language.

Dollar Benefits from Risk Aversion

2008-03-20T07:56:00.002-07:00

As talk and evidence of a US economic recession builds, the Dollar has witnessed a slight upswing. How to explain these seemingly contradictory trends? The rationale is surprisingly simple. While a US recession would predictably hit the US harder than other countries, it would still hamper growth abroad, especially in emerging markets that have come to depend on exports to the US to drive growth. Accordingly, investing in such emerging markets becomes relatively more risky than investing in the US, which is still considered to have the world's most stable investing climate from a long-term perspective. Thus, as risk aversion rises, so does the Dollar. Thomson Financial reports:

The combination of poor data weighed on stock markets in the US and Asia, while major bourses in Europe have all opened lower today. This meant the dollar gained support as investors shy away from riskier emerging market assets.

China is Earning Negative Carry

2008-03-20T07:56:00.001-07:00

China's foreign exchange reserves currently approximate $1.5 Trillion, the majority of which is denominated in USD. Moreover, the Central Bank of China earns interest on every Dollar it adds to its reserves but must also pay interest on every RMB note that it must issue to offset the Dollars. Since the Fed began easing monetary policy, the amount of carry (the difference between what the Central Bank receives on Dollars and pays on RMB) earned by the Central Bank has completely inverted, such that it now loses 250 basis points on average for each Dollar exchanged for RMB.

Based on the rate at which China is currently accumulating reserves, this amounts to between $5 Billion and $10 Billion per month, depending on which method of accounting is utilized. Furthermore, this trend has been exacerbated because China is accumulating reserves at a faster rate than its economy is growing. Some analysts have speculated that this could turn into a major political issue, with important implications for the RMB/Dollar exchange rate. The Financial Times reports:

The renminbi has started to appreciate more rapidly in recent months, rising at an annualised rate of about 20 per cent, compared with 6-7 per cent over the whole of 2007. In the longer-term, say economists, China will have no choice but to allow its currency to appreciate faster, even in the face of entrenched domestic resistance.

Why the Fed Cut Rates

2008-03-20T07:55:00.001-07:00

It seems self-evident that the Fed is easing monetary policy because it is trying to stimulate the economy and shore up confidence in capital markets by making credit less expensive. Dig a little deeper, however, and a more nuanced picture begins to emerge. Conspiracy theorists believe that the Fed knows something that investors don't, perhaps that the subprime mortgage situation is more serious than the public is being led to believe. Accordingly, the theory goes, it is trying to prevent a complete collapse of the financial system. Another theory holds that the Fed is cutting rates because it has nothing to lose by doing so. Inflation is still low, from a historical standpoint, and the Fed may be trying to inject liquidity into the financial markets before it is too late. Yet another theory holds that the Fed is deliberately targeting a weak Dollar and high commodity prices, as the former benefits the US directly by narrowing the trade imbalance, and the latter benefits the US indirectly by helping emerging market economies, which are relatively more dependent on commodities. The Chicago Tribune reports:

An increase in exports was one of the positive features of Wednesday's disappointing fourth-quarter report on U.S. gross domestic product. The cheaper dollar is a major factor in export growth, both in terms of current sales and expansion of overseas market share by U.S. manufacturers.

India Projects Forex Reserve Growth

2008-03-20T07:54:00.003-07:00

Those who make a living tracking and betting on the foreign exchange reserves of Central Banks officially have a new player to keep tabs on: India. Nearly 17 years ago, India's reserves dipped below $1 Billion, and government ministers began sounding the alarm bells. In comparison, fiscal 2007 witnessed a rise of $47 Billion in India's reserves, bringing the total to $280 Billion. The government is projecting an even greater increase in 2008, estimated at $100 Billion. Now, the challenge is what to do with all of the reserves; investors will be tracking developments in this regard because of the implications for the currencies of which the reserves are denominated in. The Dollar and Euro are currently jockeying for position; while the Dollar is way ahead, the Euro is quickly closing in.

Kiwi Rises and Falls with Risk Aversion

2008-03-20T07:54:00.001-07:00

Most of the world's major currencies are affected by a variety of technical and fundamental factors, such that only taking into account one factor is tantamount to using P/E multiples as the sole basis for purchasing shares of stock. The New Zealand Dollar, which barely qualifies as a major currency seems to be one of the few exceptions to this common sense rule. The preponderance of carry traders involved in trading the Yen ensures that the NZD inversely tracks the Japanese Yen. In addition, the demand for Kiwi is directly proportional to appetite for risk, such that when risk aversion declines, the Kiwi increases, and vice versa. The reasoning is quite simple: the Kiwi boasts the highest interest rates in the industrialized world. Because the investment climate in New Zealand is less stable than in other industrialized countries, New Zealand often witnesses capital flight during periods of global economic uncertainty. The New Zealand Herald reports:

Gains in equities markets emboldened investors to take chances, prompting use of the low-yielding yen to buy assets in higher-yielding currencies like the kiwi in carry trades.

USD May Bottom Out

2008-03-20T07:53:00.001-07:00

As far as Dollar bulls are concerned, all news is bad news. An economic recession seems inevitable. Interest rates are already negative in real terms, and are now the lowest in the industrialized world, save Japan. It's still unclear how much subprime debt will be written down by financial companies before all is said and done. But analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman, an investment bank, think the Dollar's multi-year decline is coming to an end. There are two main reasons underlying their rationale. The first point is purely technical- that the all of the bad news and in fact, the worst possible scenario, has already been priced into the Dollar. The second point is fundamental- that the speculative hot money that has poured into the US as foreign investors take advantage of a weak Dollar and that is sustaining the US current account deficit is now transitioning into long-term foreign direct investment. The Financial Post reports:

In addition, BBH believes that in a weak dollar environment, foreign companies will now start looking to move production and sourcing to the United States, following the successful example of Japanese auto makers.

Yen as Proxy for Risk Aversion

2008-03-20T07:52:00.000-07:00

The US stock market has lost over 10% of its capitalization since reaching an all-time high in October of last year. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has climbed at least as much in proportional terms since bottoming out around the same time. Coincidence? At least one analyst doesn't think so. Because of the steadfast popularity of the carry trade, the Japanese Yen appears to have developed an inverse correlation with the US stock markets. The reasoning is actually quite simple. When aversion to risk is low, investors borrow in Japanese Yen and make investments denominated in other currencies, the Dollar for one. When risk-aversion increases, as it has in the current economic environment, investors have been quick to close out their carry trade positions, causing the Yen to rise. Maktoob Business reports:

If the situation of stock markets is improving, the USD/JPY is likely to be increasing. It means that more carry trade transaction are being carried out.

Continue reading "Yen as Proxy for Risk Aversion" »

Fed Lowers Rates...Again

2008-03-20T07:50:00.000-07:00

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered interest rates for the second time in as many weeks, bringing its benchmark federal funds rate down to 3.00%. The Fed has now lowered rates by 2.25% since August. The move came as a relief to investors, who now see that the Fed is serious about preventing the economy from slipping into a full-scale recession. However, it remains to be seen whether the rate cuts will provide the necessary boost to the economy or instead prove too little too late. As far as the Dollar is concerned, the rate cuts carry two (conflicting) implications. On the one hand, the economy and stock market could rally, which would likely be matched by a Dollar rally. On the other hand, the interest rate differential between the US and EU is now a 1% and risk-averse investors hungry for yield will be hard-pressed to justify shifting capital to the US. The New York Times reports:

Many economists are far from convinced that even a combination of tax rebates and cheaper money would prevent a recession. And in a sign that bond investors are fretting that the moves could lead to higher inflation, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities edged up slightly on Wednesday.

Why a Strong Dollar is Good for the US Economy

2008-03-20T07:49:00.000-07:00

For at least the duration of the current administration, the official US stance towards its currency has been a "strong dollar" policy. In hindsight, it appears that this policy was entirely baseless, since its was directly undermined by the simultaneous easy monetary policy, and thus it stands to reason that US policymakers did not actually believe that a strong Dollar policy was necessary to pursue. In a recent op-ed piece published in the Wall Street Journal, one analyst outlines the case for a strong dollar, and by extension, why the depreciating Dollar is bad for the US economy.

First, since oil contracts are settled in Dollars, a weak Dollar has directly contributed to high oil prices, which has several negative economic and geopolitical consequences. Second, a cheap Dollar is eroding the purchasing power of US consumers directly by making imports more expensive and indirectly through inflation. Third, the weak Dollar shifts the balance of economic power in favor of US competitors, which don't need to grow as fast to keep pace with the US, in Dollar terms. Finally, the recent weakness threatens the long term reserve status of the Dollar, which has important implications for economic growth and jobs creation.

On the other hand, argues the analyst, the conventional wisdom that a declining Dollar is necessary to correct the current account and trade deficit is bunk, since much of the trade deficit is accounted for by intra-company trade and since the current account deficit is generally overstated and not connected to currency valuations. In short, he argues, it is in the best interest of the US to align its rhetoric with its economic and monetary policies such that the long term luster of the Dollar is restored.

ECB to Avoid Rate Cuts

2008-03-20T07:48:00.000-07:00

When America's dot-com bubble collapsed in 2001, the Federal Reserve Bank moved quickly to quell the panic by slashing interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB), on the other hand, was adamant that it would not have to follow suit since the European and American economies were no longer so intertwined. Several months later, it became increasingly clear that the ECB was wrong, and it was ultimately forced to lower rates. Now, some analysts fear that history is repeating itself, as America's housing crisis threatens to run a similar course as the collapse of the stock market bubble. The Fed has lowered interest rates twice in the last few months, while the ECB has yet to act, insisting that its primary concern is inflation. For now, the interest rate differential is supporting the Euro, but if the ECB falls behind the curve, a stagnating EU economy could bring down the common currency. The New York Times reports:

But when it comes to the economy, Europe remains optimistic it can decouple itself and withstand collateral damage from a possible recession in the United States.

Continue reading "ECB to Avoid Rate Cuts" »

BOC Cuts Rates

2008-03-20T07:46:00.000-07:00

Last week, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing its benchmark lending rate down to 4%. Fortunately for the Canadian Dollar, the rate cut paled in comparison to the 75 basis point move effected by America's Federal Reserve Bank. While the Bank of Canada offered a hackneyed rationale of "keeping aggregate supply and demand in balance" for the change in monetary policy, there is still some surrounding haze since Canadian inflation is rising and economic growth is strong. The currency had slipped below parity against its American counterpart, but is now slowly crawling its way back. If commodity prices remain high, the currency will likely push back across that psychologically important barrier of 1:1 with the USD.

South African Rand Resumes Trend

2008-03-20T07:45:00.002-07:00

The South African Rand is not the subject of much analysis in the forex community, which typically confines itself to the majors and the BRIC currencies - Brazil, Russia, India, and China. But recently, the Rand found itself on the radar screen of at least one analyst, who pondered the implications of a growing trend towards risk aversion. It appears that the Rand has resumed a clearly identifiable downward path against the Dollar, a course which had been temporarily interrupted in the early years of the decade. Now, inflation is picking up again and investors globally are becoming more hostile towards risk, two factors which bode ill for the Rand. On the other hand, South Africa is rich in natural resources; judging from the performance of the Canadian Loonie and the Australian Dollar, commodity economies are still in vogue. The Times reports:

The curve ball for precious metals would be a sustained stronger dollar, unlikely while the US economy is in its current predicament and the Fed is cutting rates.

Foreign Investors Target US

2008-03-20T07:45:00.001-07:00

So-called 'Sovereign Wealth Funds' are the talk of the town, stealing headlines as part of a multi-billion dollar buying spree. Anecdotally, stories of these funds and other institutional foreign investors have made a big splash, epitomized by a few high-profile investments in struggling American investment banks. It no longer appears these stories were isolated, as suggested by some pretty compelling economic data. In 2007, total foreign direct investment into the United States totaled $400 Billion, which represents a 90% increase over 2006. In addition, the first few weeks of 2008 saw a frenzy of activity, which suggest this trend will continue. Investment in the US is being driven primarily by a weak Dollar and attractive stock market valuations. If the bad news on the US economy continues to pour in, analysts warn that foreigners could play an even larger role in mitigating against recession. The New York Times reports:

The weak dollar has made American companies and properties cheaper in global terms. Even as Americans confront the prospect of a recession, economic growth remains strong worldwide, endowing oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia and export powers like China and Germany with abundant cash.

Fed Dramatically Lowers Interest Rates

2008-03-20T07:44:00.003-07:00

Last week, the New York Times published an article with the byline "Is the Federal Reserve’s chairman, Ben Bernanke too nice for the job?" Apparently, talk had been building on Wall Street that Bernanke was not tough enough to deal with the growing problems faced by the world's largest economy. Bernanke responded publicly in a speech in which he promised that the Fed would act quickly and decisively to confront such problems. Then on Tuesday, the critics were silenced peremptorily by a Fed rate cut of 75 basis points, the largest single cut in two decades. Moreover, Bernanke intimated that additional rate cuts could come as soon as next week.

It's unclear how this activity will affect the Dollar. On the one hand, it implies beyond a reasonable doubt that the US economy is indeed headed for recession. Bond yields are declining and the stock market has lost 15% of its value since October. On the other hand, the Fed has demonstrated that it is willing and able to take the necessary steps to avoid a hard landing at any cost. At the same time, investors around the world fear that a US recession will have an adverse impact on the global economy. And where do investors park their money during periods of global economic uncertainty? Answer: USA. Sure enough, the Dollar has already begun to rally after taking a big hit immediately following the rate cuts.

Volatility Drives Yen

2008-03-20T07:44:00.001-07:00

As Asian capital markets crash in unison, the Japanese Yen is rising at its fastest pace in years. Taken out of context, that sounds like a contradiction, since a positive correlation typically obtains between the strength of a nation's economy, capital markets, and currency. However, the Yen is unique, as most forex traders are doubtlessly aware. The Yen rises and falls with the whims of the carry trade, which in turn is tied closely to volatility. And in case you haven't noticed, global capital markets are seesawing to such an extent that by some measures, volatility levels have reached a nine-year high. One analyst has drawn a parallel between the current credit crisis and the 1998 Asian economic crisis, which also produced a Yen rally.

Chinese Yuan Accelerates Upwards

2008-03-20T07:43:00.001-07:00

When Henry Paulson was appointed Secretary of the US Treasury last year, he made China and its purportedly undervalued currency a cornerstone of his economic plan. Lo and behold, several months ago, the Yuan suddenly accelerated in its upward path against the Dollar, rising at an annualized rate of 14%. Currency futures are now pricing in an 8% rise in 2008, while several economists are forecasting a 10% increase. Ironically, there are still American policymakers who think the Yuan is appreciating too slowly, as well as Chinese policymakers who reckon it is increasing too rapidly. Accordingly, the current pace probably represents a fair compromise. Besides, inflation is threatening the US, so a slow appreciation would enable the economy to adjust to higher prices in the long term. While China also faces rising inflation, it doesn't want to send investors the message that the movement of its currency is uni-dimensional, which would encourage further inflows of speculative capital. The Economist reports:

But Chinese policymakers have stressed the need for gradual adjustment. To show that the currency is not just a one-way bet, the PBOC may try to nudge the yuan a bit lower in coming days.

Economist: Fed Should Prop Up Dollar

2008-03-20T07:42:00.002-07:00

In a recent editorial published in the Wall Street Journal, the Chief Economist for Bear Stearns (an American investment bank) advocated intervention by America's Federal Reserve Bank on behalf of the Dollar. He reasons that the best way both to fight and inflation and alleviate the possibility of recession is to strengthen the USD. Current measures, which include lowering the discount rate and manipulating the money supply, are actually worsening inflation. As a result, institutional investors are moving their capital en masse outside the US in order to prevent the declining dollar from corroding their investment returns. While paying lip service to the prevailing wisdom that Central Banks are essentially impotent when it comes to managing currencies, he insists that strong rhetoric by the Fed could conceivably convince investors that it stood behind the "Strong Dollar Policy" it promotes. The Wall Street Journal reports:

By saying they want a stronger dollar, the Fed...could make it happen. Government policy makers have almost absolute control over perceptions of the future scarcity of dollars. This controls the demand for dollars almost as much as it does the supply, setting its value as much or more than rates do.

China's Forex Reserves Roar Past $1.5 Trillion

2008-03-20T07:42:00.001-07:00

On January 24 last year, the Forex Blog reported with great fanfare that China's forex reserves had breached the epic milestone of $1 Trillion. [In hindsight, it turns out that the psychologically important barrier was broken several months earlier, but that is beside the point]. Less than one year later, China's forex reserves reached another important threshold, soaring past $1.5 Trillion. It appears that new reserves are being accumulated at an exponential rate, having increased $460 Billion last year and over $30 Billion in the month of December alone. By no coincidence, China's 2007 trade surplus of $262 Billion shattered the previous record and is expanding at a comparably supersonic pace.

Most analysts reckon that the country is locked in a vicious cycle: when its trade surplus grows, its forex reserves grow proportionately. Moreover, the lopsided trade imbalance th\at China maintains with most of the world ensures that the demand for Chinese Yuan exceeds the supply. In the short run, a more expensive currency equates to higher prices paid for its exports which only increases the trade surplus and forex reserves further, and exerts still more pressure on the currency to appreciate. Meanwhile, as the Yuan rises, the value of China's forex reserves, which are denominated predominantly in USD, falls. What a conundrum indeed! Xinhua News reports:

The value of Chinese RMB against the US dollars has appreciated by over six percent in 2007. The central parity rate of the RMB was 7.2672 to the US dollar on Friday.

Risk Aversion Lifts Carry Trade

2008-03-20T07:40:00.000-07:00

Since July, the Japanese Yen has notched a stellar performance in climbing 15% against the Dollar, without garnering much attention. Within the last week, however, analysts have begun to take notice, as the carry trade temporarily collapsed and the Yen appreciated by another 3%. 'But Japan's Central Bank is no hurry to raise interest rates,' you are probably wondering. 'What on earth is all the fuss about?' Volatility, the sworn enemy of carry traders has exploded. Global capital markets, including the US stock market, are in a state of turmoil. The financial services industry, the perennial bulwark of the US economy, is set to record its worst year in recent memory. Leading the way, so-to-speak, is Citigroup, which recently announced that it will write-down an additional $10 Billion in worthless subprime paper and will also receive a proportionately large infusion of capital. Cue exit music for carry traders. Bloomberg News reports:

"The global and risk environment is dominating yen pricing,'' said Chris Turner, head of currency research at ING Financial Markets in London. "There's risk aversion in the background.''

Central Banks in the News

2008-03-20T07:39:00.000-07:00

As we wrote last week, the direction of the Dollar may be influenced more by external economic events rather than by internal activity. Accordingly, it would behoove forex traders to direct their attention away from the Fed and towards the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, both of which face important monetary policy decisions later in the month. With regard to the Bank of England, futures markets have priced in a 2/3 chance that rates will be cut by 25 basis points. In the case of the ECB, the markets are expecting rates to be maintained at current levels. However, analysts will be scrutinizing the Banks' respective press releases and monitoring other developments in this area due to the implications for the US-EU-Britain interest rate differential. Reuters reports:

Some analysts think that hawkish comments from Trichet will be brushed aside with weaker economic data leading to the prospect of falling euro zone rates later in the year.

USD Draws Support from Abroad

2008-03-20T07:38:00.001-07:00

2008 is still in its infancy, which means the self-proclaimed forex experts can be excused for offering their projections on what the year has in store for the Dollar. If currencies were traded in a vaccum, the Dollar would probably trend upward, since many technical factors suggest it is oversold. From a fundamental standpoint, however, it is probably overvalued, per the laws of interest rate parity and purchasing power parity. Relative to other countries, though, it may be undervalued. From this standpoint, argue some analysts, the biggest impetus for a Dollar upswing will come not from good news emanating from the US, but rather from bad news emanating from the rest of the world. For example, the British economy, balance of trade, and monetary policy outlook is even more bleak than the US. The CEO of Airbus, one of the EU's most important companies, has threatened to shift production away from the EU if the Euro remains expensive. Finally, the Central Bank of China is allowing the Yuan to appreciate at a faster pace against the Dollar. As far as Dollar bulls are concerned, it might be best if the US government simply sits tight. The BBC reports:

"A lot of bad news is already priced into the dollar. It's elsewhere that the shocks could come from, perhaps from the European Central Bank, or the Bank of England."

Potential Tax Cuts Boost USD

2008-03-20T07:37:00.000-07:00

Recently, most of the news regarding the Dollar has, frankly, not been positive. The housing crisis is beginning to take its toll on the broader economy. The Fed is planning to lower interest rates at its next meeting, which will eliminate the positive differential with Euro-zone rates. High commodity prices are driving inflation and eroding the value of the Dollar. But today, the news was good- at least as far as the USD is concerned. The Wall Street Journal leaked a document from the Bush Administration that mentioned tax cuts for households and businesses. The aim of the tax cuts, ideology notwithstanding, is to provide a stimulus for the reeling economy. As they say, what's good for the US economy is good for the Dollar. Reuters reports:

"Given the market's perception that a (U.S.) recession is looking increasingly inevitable, tax cuts and any stimulus measures offered by the authorities will obviously bode well (for risk appetite) ... It's more positive for the dollar because there is a sense that it may help avoid a recession."

Fed Will Cut Rates in January

2008-03-20T07:32:00.002-07:00

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management released the results of its monthly manufacturing survey, which fell to a four-year low. Taken with testimony from bond expert Bill Gross, the picture is now quite bleak. In fact, economists are projecting that the US economy will slip into recession as soon as the first quarter of 2008; Gross believes that the economy is already in recession. As a result, futures markets have already priced in a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50 basis point move by the Fed at its next meeting, scheduled for the end of January. As expected, the Dollar is taking a beating in forex markets, as traders price in the effect of the rate cuts, which would create interest rate parity with the EU. DailyFX reports:

The minutes from the last FOMC meeting confirmed that growth is the Fed’s primary concern at the moment. The deterioration in incoming economic data has forced them to lower their growth estimates for 2007 and 2008.

Venezuela's Currency Loses a Few Zeros

2008-03-20T07:32:00.001-07:00

In Venezuela, the inflation rate for 2007 is estimated at 20%, a slight increase over the 17% growth in prices that was observed in 2006. The nation, led by Hugo Chavez, plans to deal with inflation by dropping a few zeros from the currency's exchange rate. Currently, the official exchange rate is 2,150 Venezuelan Bolivars for every US Dollar. Under the revaluation, the new official exchange rate will become 2.15 Bolivars/USD. Critics charge that the change will not have any impact on inflation, especially since the market exchange rate implies a Bolivar that is three times less valuable than government rates. Chavez retorts that the revaluation is only one part of a broader, more sophisticated strategy. Down Jones reports:

The Central bank president had earlier in the year said the effect on inflation would be neutral, and most economists agree, but [Finance Minister] Mr Cabezas said "it's definitely going to have a positive effect" on the government's fight against price increases.

Forex Themes for 2008

2008-03-20T07:31:00.002-07:00

Last week, the Forex Blog recounted what happened across forex markets in 2007, in all of its drama. Now, we would like to offer a nice counterpoint, in the form of the major themes expected to dominate forex headlines in 2008, courtesy of Dow Jones. The list includes eight distinct themes, though there is some overlap. Three of the themes pertain directly to the USD, which is the currency most worth watching in the upcoming year. The fundamentals bode well for the Dollar; the economy has not suffered from the credit crunch nearly as much as economists feared; the cheaper currency has boosted exports; foreigners have proven surprisingly willing to finance the twin deficits.

Then, there is inflation, which has reared its ugly head in the US as well as abroad. Foreign Central Banks, especially in Asia, may have to tighten monetary policy in order to maintain price stability. Those countries with already-high interest rates, such as Australia and New Zealand, are expected to keep rates high. The next theme, accordingly, is the carry trade, which should continue its run due to the aforementioned high interest rates. Next is China, which will be watched on two fronts: its economy and its currency, both of which are expected to continue rising.

The final two themes pertain especially to the Middle East: currency pegs and Sovereign Wealth Funds. As the Dollar declined in 2007, several nations in the Mid East mulled the possibility of de-linking their respective currencies from the Dollar, but thus far, the status quo has obtained. Sovereign Wealth Funds also made a big splash in 2007 with several high-profile investments in the US, implicitly underscoring their their commitment to the Dollar. They represent a growing force in global capital markets, and will be watched vigilantly in 2008.

View the Complete List Here

India's Forex Reserves Near $300 Billion

2008-03-20T07:31:00.001-07:00

India is quickly becoming a major force on the foreign exchange reserve scene. While India doesn't fix its currency to the USD like China does, it still removes most foreign currency from circulation in order to mitigate against inflation. As a result, its reserves have ballooned to nearly $300 Billion, having increased by $100 Billion this year alone. India will now be faced with the same decisions that many other forex reserve hogs have been forced to reckon with, namely how to allocate its reserves. While India hasn't weighed in prominently on the issue as China has, analysts will be watching closely. The Economic Times reports:

Rate cut by the Fed in the US along with the positive perception prevailing about the emerging economies such as India has led to sharp rise in inflows, it said.

Loonie: All signs Point to Yes

2008-03-20T07:30:00.002-07:00

When making predictions for 2008, it is useful to put things in perspective by assessing predictions made at this time in 2007. With regard to the Canadian Dollar ("Loonie"), most analysts predicted a rise, but all dismissed the possibility of parity with the USD. Ultimately, the Loonie rose to 1.10 against the Dollar before ending the year just above parity. With this in mind, experts are predicting the Loonie will continue to appreciate in 2008, with forecasts ranging from modest to stellar. Some analysts believe the Loonie will continue to ride the wave of high commodity prices, while others expect the currency to benefit from a general weakness in the US Dollar. But if 2007 taught us anything, it's that these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. The CanWest News Service reports:

Gartman, who two years ago predicted the loonie would reach parity with the U.S. greenback, says the Canadian dollar is poised to rise even further, but on its own merits, and not because of a run on the greenback, which he suspects is already oversold on world exchange markets.

Dollar Declines in Forex Reserves

2008-03-20T07:30:00.001-07:00

What analysts have been warning of for years has finally come to pass: the USD officially occupies a sDollar Declines in Forex Reservesmaller portion of global foreign exchange reserves. According to a recent IMF reports, the fraction of reserves denominated in Dollars has fallen from 66.5% to 63.8% over the last year, with much of the difference offset by a proportional rise in the preponderance of the Euro. Analysts first began sounding alarm bells as early as 2003, when the Dollar fell nearly 15% against the Euro. However, it wasn't until 2006, when China began to accumulate reserves at an ever-increasing rate as its trade surplus exploded while at the same time the USD was tanking, that commentators began paying attention. 2007 brought several anecdotal reports that foreign Central Banks were both passively and actively diversifying their reserves. Now, it looks as though these were not isolated incidents, but instead part of a broader trend. AFP reports:

In recent months, several emerging-market countries, whose foreign currency reserves have ballooned as a result of such factors as high commodity prices and strong exports, have signaled their intention to further diversify their foreign exchange reserves to offset the US currency's depreciation.

Dollar Rally in 2008?

2008-03-20T07:27:00.000-07:00

With the books closed on 2007, analysts are looking ahead to 2008. With regard to the Dollar, market sentiment is surprisingly upbeat, with expectations of a 5-10% appreciation. In blogging circles, the word "oversold" has been cropping up. Commentators cite a mix of technical and fundamental factors in their reasoning. Some economists expect the US trade deficit to decline marginally in 2008 and GDP to grow at 2-4%. These fundamentals, they argue, support a higher Dollar valuation. The price of oil has been singles out as a pivotal input in the US economic forecast. If the price declines by 20% or more, it could offset the still-unfolding housing crisis and provide much-needed support for the faltering economy. he EU could also take steps to support a Dollar appreciation. EU Government and Central Bank officials have voiced concern over the Euro's rise, and could intervene on its behalf via a change in interest rates. BloggingStocks reports:

"So far the ECB's deeds have not matched their words, but one gets the sense the ECB will take actions to strengthen the dollar and weaken the euro in 2008."

FOREX TRADING: Step-By-Step Forex Trading For The Beginner

2008-03-13T05:12:00.002-07:00

Getting started in trading currency can be an extremely daunting task for someone with no experience in the forex market. There are many pitfalls out there that can trip up even the most seasoned trader, and it can be easy to become confused and discouraged by the many nuances of currency trading. By following a few simple tips, you can avoid these frustrations and get started on the path to becoming a successful forex trader.

1) Choose the Right Brokerage Firm: The first and most important decision you will have to make is choosing the right brokerage firm. There are many different options available, and some are vastly better than others. As a rule, you should make sure that the institution is a well-established, reputable company, preferably with ties to a bank or other financial institution. Registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is an absolute must, as this is a good determining factor in a brokerage’s legitimacy. Another characteristic to look for is a wide range of forex research tools such as real-time quotes, charts, and professionally written research reports. You want to choose a brokerage that makes available as much information as possible to its account holders, as the more information you have, the more successful you will be in trading. Finally, you should choose a brokerage that has a favorable spread, which is the difference between the buying price and the selling price of a currency at a given moment. This difference in values represents the amount that the brokerage takes off the top of each trade, so a tighter spread translates into more money in your pocket each time.

2) Open Up a Demo Account: After you choose a good brokerage, the next thing you should do is open up a demo account first. An account type that is offered by most brokerages, the demo account has a pretend balance that allows the beginning investor to play around with different ideas and get a general feel for currency trading before taking the plunge with real money. This is a great way to practice trading and learn how to properly research a currency pair before taking a position. As demo accounts usually last for a month, you’ll have plenty of time to gain experience while also learning how the software works so that you can make informed decisions and lightning-fast trades when the time comes. It is important to not rush through this phase of the learning process, to fully maximize this valuable tool that has been made available.

3) Start Small & Learn How to Deal With Your Emotions: Once you have graduated to using a real account with actual money, it is imperative that you start small and not try to break the bank out of the starting gate. Placing calculated trades using the minimum possible amount of currency can be seen as an extension of the learning process that occurred during the demo account phase. Since your own money is being used this time, different emotions will be involved in the trading process, so this is the point at which you can learn how to correctly deal with these emotions before they can affect your trading success. The other thing to keep in mind is that it is a very bad idea to use a lot of leverage right away. Since beginning forex traders inevitably take some losses while learning the process, a margin call right at the outset is very possible for someone who is close to the margin limit, and this can be a disastrous thing. It is much better to trade a lot closer to the cash balance in the account, and to take things slowly at the outset.

By following these tips, you can give yourself a better chance of success at getting started in the world of forex trading. Remember: choose a good broker, learn the ropes with a demo account, and above all, take it slow.

Currency & Forex Trading

2008-03-13T05:12:00.001-07:00

Currency & Forex Trading
Forex trading ( FX trading ) is buying and selling the foreign currencies of different countries. There is a similarity between stock trading and Forex trading. Foreign currencies can go up and down with time-dependent volatility, and they act like shares of currency institutions. Like stock prices, you can buy long and sell short another high currency. A successful Forex trader must keep up with the basics of the market to make the most of his investment.Global news and events have important influence in Forex trading. For instance, if there is a new war, forex traders may react violently to the news. A wise investor need to pay close attention to current events. In fact, the best time to trade is when the news is released, because most of the big market will move around the news.Some investors get advice from too many resources. Although it is important to be knowledgeable, you need to take a position. If you are seeking help from a broker, you should not interfere with his strategy. Some plans may have a long gestation period.Don't be overly cautious. You do not need research all the historical trends. It is important to keep your trade simple. Remember, Forex market is at its highest potential in the volatility. Do not go after the small profits all the time. You may end up undercutting yourself.If you discover that your trade may not work out, get out. Some investors make a mistake by staying, because they hope for a reversal.* Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Pauline_Go

FOREX TRADE: How to Read Forex Quotes Correctly?

2008-03-13T05:11:00.001-07:00

Reading forex quotes correctly is essential to forex trading but it can be quite confusing for the new comer. Actually, they are quite simple to read and understand. Here is a guideline to reading forex quotes correctly.

Let us look at an example of how a forex rate quote looks like:

EUR/USD = 1.2526

The above looks simple enough, right? This is an example of a foreign exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar.

Do not forget that in all forex quotes, there are always two currencies quoted. The forex quote is displayed such because when you make a trade in forex trading, you are always buying one currency and selling another at the same time.

In all forex quotes, the first currency listed is known as the base currency while the second is known as the quote currency. Forex quotes are meant to show us the price relationship between the two currencies.

The foreign exchange rate gives us an indication of how many units of the quote currency we have to pay to get one unit of the base currency.

The above example shows us that the base currency is the Euro and the quote currency is the US dollar. The forex quote tells us how each currency is trading relative to the other. In order to purchase one unit of Euros you will have to sell 1.2526 units of US Dollars.

It should be easy to understand so far. Now let’s add an additional thing to our example and that is the bid ask spread.

Forex brokers are paid not on the trades placed in the forex market but on the bid/ask spread instead.

We shall add the bid/ask spread to our example above:

EUR/USD = 1.2526/1.2528

This can be simplified to:

EUR/USD = 1.2526/8

Forex brokers make their commissions by selling currencies at a slightly higher rate than they buy them. This is perfectly legal and all forex brokers do it, though the amount of the spread may vary.

As a forex trader, you will be buying at the bid price, which is the first price quoted. You will then sell at the ask price which is the second price listed. This difference between the two prices is called the spread which is retained by the forex broker as their profit on the trade.

In our above example, you will buy at 1.2526 and sell at 1.2528. The 0.0002 (2 pips) will go to the forex broker as a payment for executing the trade for you.

The bid/ask spread is an easy to understand and clear-cut way for calculating trading fees and expenses.

With a good understanding of how to read forex quotes correctly, it can go a long way in helping you achieve success in forex trading

Basics of Financial Market Behavior

2008-03-13T05:10:00.000-07:00

Most people try to approach trading or investing by trying to "predict" the future price of stocks, commodities, currencies, or the market indices.

Different people have different methods. Some use fundamental analysis: looking at a company's health, balance sheets, earnings, the economy, etc. Others use technical analysis, trying to decipher trends and patterns in stock charts.

This is the wrong approach. It has been shown repeatedly for several decades that prices are not predictable, other than a general long term rising of the markets (due to the expansion of the country and world's economies. Of course, this long term tendency to rise has only been observed for the past couple hundred years, which means it is not guaranteed to happen forever.)

In any case, the unpredictability of the markets is well documented. One need only look at history. Money manager and traders, amateur and professional alike, have a track record that is no better than simply following an index fund. This has been shown time and time again. Read the book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" for details.

If that's the case, one should just buy and hold an index fund, right?

Not a good idea either. If you buy an index fund at the "wrong time", it's entirely possible you would have to wait years or even decades to make any money. For example, if you had bought the Dow in 1929, you would have waited 25 years to break even. If you had bought New Zealand in 1987 you would have waited seven years.

Waiting a decade to see any return on your investment is hardly an investment.

What's the proper way to approach investing or trading? The proper way to tme your entries and exits according to the following basic tenet:

When prices go up a LOT (relatively speaking) and FAST (relatively speaking), you can expect them to come down.
When prices go down a LOT (relatively speaking) and FAST (relatively speaking), you can expect them to go UP.

It is that simple.

How far is far? How fast is fast? To answer this, it pays to compare long term stock charts with short term ones. A good guideline is something called the 50% retracement rule. Google for it. Pick up a book on it. Or look at my other pages on this website to learn more about it.

Here are the other rules to go by:

Absolutely do not trade on news. News is often late, misleading, wrong, or agenda-driven. See my other posts on this website for details.
If you are an active day trader, avoid trading important government reports. Do not enter a trade prior to the report, regardless of your opinion. Markets are very volatile during these times.
Do not attempt to forecast peaks or bottoms. Your trading should only try to catch a portion of the major move, it doesn't matter whether you miss most of it, as long as you make a profit on some of it.

Skeptical? Sound too simple to work? I challenge you to compare your returns trading this method, with any other method you may choose.

Passive investors will benefit GREATLY by being only a LITTLE active in watching the markets and by identifying major moves. Look at daily stock charts often. Look at 10-year charts every once in a while. Identify major moves and the retracements of those moves. Identify vertical zones on stock charts where you can expect to make profits by trading these retracements. Identify probable areas to BUY. Identify probable areas to SELL and SELL SHORT.

Under no circumstances should you just "Buy and Hold" because that's what your investment advisor tells you.

You management of your money should follow these guidelines, whether you actively trade individual stocks or you trade portfolios or mutual funds. The principle is the same and applies to ALL financial markets.

* Article Source: Common Sense Trading.

FOREX TRADING: Fundamental Analysis & Economic Indicators

2008-03-13T05:09:00.002-07:00

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.

Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.

International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.

The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.

In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.

FOREX TRADING: Fundamental Analysis on Forex Trading

2008-03-13T05:09:00.001-07:00

It has become imperative for every forex trader to learn how to predict the price trend and which method or software is the best.

When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.

Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.

Generally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and rough currency rate.

Keeping in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. Meanwhile, forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Different people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. At the end, some may make huge profit and some lose their money. You can not say fundamental analysis is easy.

Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. For example, when analyzing an economist's forecast of the upcoming GDP or employment report, you begin to get a fairly clear picture of the general health of the economy and the forces at work behind it. However, you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.

Tip: If you are new to do forex trading and do not trade frequently, you can mainly use fundamental analysis for your trading.

Don't disturb yourself by information overload. Sometimes traders fall into this trap and are unable to pull the trigger on a trade. Normally, your first feel is the answer for you to do forex trading. At that time, you are sure which currency is strong and which country's economy is good. The more simple, the more useful.

However, trading a particular market without knowing a great deal about the exact nature of its underlying elements is unbelievable. You might get lucky and snare a few on occasion but it's not the best approach over the long haul.

For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is very important to understand fundamental analysis and use them on forex trading.

* Paul Zou is the blogger of Make Money Online, Online Investment and Work At Home

FOREX ANALYSIS: How to Predict the Forex?

2008-03-13T05:08:00.002-07:00

The object of Forex analysis, is to try and predict which way the market is likely to move. If you get your predictions right, you will make a profit, but if you get them wrong and you will lose your money. There are two types of Forex analysis: Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis.

Fundamental analysis involves taking into account the social, economic and political forces that influence the value of a particular country's currency. If the economy of the country is strong, and the country has a stable government, then the value of that country's currency can be expected to rise against the currencies of countries with weaker economies.

The most extreme example of a country with a weak (collapsed) economy (at the time of writing - early 2008) is Zimbabwe. The poor state of Zimbabwe's economy is largely due to horrendous government, with the theft of farm land and plundering of Zimbabwe's currency reserves by corrupt government officials. The rate of inflation in Zimbabwe is currently over 1,000 percent, so that the currency loses over 90 percent of its value every year. The value of Zimbabwe's currency is so low, that its value is now literally worth less than the paper it is printed on.

Even in stable healthy economies however, the actions of in particular, reserve banks (e.g. Federal Reserve in the U.S, Bank Of England in the UK etc.) can influence the value of the currency.

Technical analysis involves examining currency prices over a period of time to try and identify trends and patterns. For example, if the value of a particular currency has been steadily increasing over a period of several weeks, then it is likely that the trend will continue in the future, at least in the short term. The trend is the most important aspect of technical analysis. If you can correctly identify a trend, and trade in the same direction you are likely to make profitable trades. Also, the earlier you identify a trend, the more chance you have of making profitable trades.

Ideally, you need to employ both fundamental and technical analysis in your Forex trading.

For example, suppose you were charting the value of the UK pound (GBP) against the U.S. dollar in October - November 2007, using technical analysis only. You would have noticed that for several consecutive days, the GBP was increasing against the USD by around 100 pips every day. So, on November 8, 2007 (the first Thursday in November), you discover the Forex quote: GBP/USD = 2.1104/2.1109. You figure, that by the end of the trading day this should have increased to around: GBP/USD = 2.1204/2.1209. So you buy one standard lot at a rate of 1 GBP = 2.1109 USD, = 47373 GBP. You expect the GBP to rise by 100 pips, so you can sell your 47373 GBP for 2.1204 USD each = $100,450 and earn a nice $450 profit on the day's trading.

You check the exchange rate a few hours later and you discover that it has moved against you, and the Forex quote: = 2.0906/2.0911. You decide to cut your losses, and sell your 47373 GBP for 2.0906 USD each = $99,294. So instead of making $450 profit, you make a loss of $100,000 - $99,294 = $706. So what happened? The Bank of England sets the UK base interest rate on the first Thursday of every month. On Thursday November 8, 2007, The Bank of England was expected to increase the UK base interest rate, and hence lower the UK inflation rate and increase the value of the GBP. However, the Bank of England unexpectedly left the UK interest rate on hold, which caused the GBP to fall in value instead.

* Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Chen_Petersen

Forex Trading: How to Earn a Living With Forex Trading?

2008-03-13T05:08:00.001-07:00

If you're still working at a 9 to 5 job, feeling that there's no end of working for people and no freedom to do what you want to do, why not think of something new which can give you all this? Forex Trading is one of the ways that can help you and your family.

For your information, Forex Trading is the LARGEST market in the world. Yes! You read it right, it's larger than stocks, future, options combined together. Forex Trading have over USD1.3 trillion per day and the amount is increasing now and then.

Forex Trading or currency trading or foreign exchange (short form for forex) simply means buying or selling a pair of currency. In forex trading, we buy or sell in a pair of currencies. For example, in EUR/USD pair, if you're buying this pair, you're buying EURO while selling USD and the other way around.
The best thing about forex trading is that you earn no matter the market is up or down provided you are in the same side of the market movement.

You might be asking, is it easy to trade forex? Well, it's simple yet not easy. However, if you have certain knowledge about it, you will have a handsome profit. Warren Buffet gaining big profit in forex!

If you've been to bank or watch the business time tv news, you'll notice that there are figures like 1.2345 up or down. That's the price of currency pair. One move of the last digit (we call it 'pip') is either approximately $1 or $10. Everyday the average of the price move is around 70 to 130 pips. That could be your profit of $70 to $130 or $700 to $1300 per day!

See the potential of forex trading earning for a living for you? Now, go to www.google.com and enter 'forex trading demo' and get a forex trading demo to have a look at how the forex trading looks like. Play around with the platform and see what happens. Don't worry, your account is just demo and the money is not real money also.

For real forex trading, all you need is just $200 to $300 to get started. However, before you trade forex with your real money, learn what you need to know first, then only trade with your real money or else you'll regret. Over 90% of the trader lose their money of the first trading.

by Elisha Gan
Get free forex signals at: http://freeforexsignals.blogspot.com

Online Forex Trading Can Make You Rich, But Watch Out!

2008-03-13T05:07:00.001-07:00

Foreign currency exchange trading (Forex Trading) is creating a lot of buzz in investment circles, because it's making many people very wealthy. Unlike the New York Stock Exchange, the forex trading market is open twenty-four hours a day. You can literally trade from sun up to sun down in the forex market.

The reason why so many people want to learn how to trade forex is because they hear stories about average folks, who have become forex traders, putting some money into a few good trades and making themselves a bundle - we're talking thousands of dollars.

Is this kind of success in currency trading possible for you?

Yes, and no.

Yes, it is absolutely possible for you to learn how to analyze the forex market and pick winning trades. However, this success will not come overnight and will not come without some study and practice on your part.

Was that a buzz kill?

I hope not. It's just a little cold water being splashed in your face. Look, online forex trading can be a little like gambling in Vegas. You've got your cash on hand, you're sitting there at your computer looking at all the forex charts and currencies: dollar, yen, euro, etc.

You're just itching to make some trades and even though you're still green under the gills, you're ready to jump in on that hot tip you got from your fellow forex trading buddy. The rent money's due and you've got bills to pay, but you just know that if you make this one trade - you'll make big bank!

Okay, this is where the excited new forex traders get happy, go all in and then . . . lose lots of money they can't afford.

That's right. While experienced forex traders are making nice profits on that hot tip, the newbies are getting wiped out clean, because they really don't know what they're doing and are betting their hard earned cash based on pure emotions. The first thing you need to learn about trading currencies is that you should NEVER make a trade like a gambler sitting at a roulette table letting it all ride on red.

The best forex traders are the ones that know how to keep their cool.

The best forex traders also learn how to read the forex news and analyze what trades they think are best given certain market conditions. Another golden tip is that you should never invest money that you need to keep a roof over your head, food in the fridge and the lights on at home. People who do this are gamblers and we already know that gamblers lose most of the time.

Successful forex traders have learned to risk no more than 2-3% of their total forex trading account. So, while they may make thousands, these investors have learned how to build on their success. When you have a winning trade, you take that money and invest it again and again.

To be safe, while you are learning how to trade in the forex market, you shouldn't use real money period. You can open a demo forex trading account and make your trades without risking a cent. This way, when you lose, you can study that mistake and try to correct it. While all investors, even successful ones, lose money, you'll be learning how to minimize your losses and increase your winning trades.

A good online forex trading system will show you the ropes and teach you how to look at trends and study market movement. You'll also learn how to put in a strategic stop loss to keep you from losing too much money when the forex market goes against you.

When the time is right, and you are confident you can trade successfully (with a cool head) using real money, then jump in and go for the gusto!

Article Source: Star Smith, http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Star_Smith

Forex Trading Guide - Tips & Tricks To Success

2008-03-13T05:06:00.002-07:00

Looking for tips and tricks to succeed on the Forex market? They say that knowledge and wisdom come from experience and I have to generally agree with this statement. As such, I have gleaned a great deal of this wisdom from those that have gone before me in the Forex market. As a result of gleaning this Forex trading wisdom I have compiled a list of tips and tricks to succeed on the Forex market.

FOREX TRADING TIP In the Forex market there will always be bullish and bearish market patterns. It is vital that you find the dominant trends of forex. Never fight the trend. Remember the old adage, "The trend is your friend."
FOREX TRADING TIP Buy the rumor and sell the news. This is how to beat the Big money which counts on the small forex trader to be naïve and impulsive.
FOREX TRADING TIP If a currency is overbought it is time to get out immediately. Do not fight this as it is almost always a losing position.
FOREX TRADING TIP If you find yourself wishing, you will eventually find yourself losing. If you do not have a reason to be in a move, then get out.
FOREX TRADING TIP If you are having intense relationship stress or are physically sick wait until a better time to trade in the forex market, as emotionally taxing issues WILL have an impact on your trading.
FOREX TRADING TIP If you feel the need to get in a move because it is a "golden opportunity that rarely comes along" you are better off not rushing into it. The truth is that there are always going to be great opportunities available. Be patient.

These are just a few but tried and true tips and tricks for gaining an advantage on the Forex market and after all, we can all use an advantage.

* Article Source: Cal Relerd, http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Cal_Relerd

FOREX TRADING- How To Really Start Making Money

2008-03-13T05:06:00.001-07:00

If you've been checking out ways to get started in investing, chances are you've heard about the foreign exchange market, or FOREX trading. If you're unfamiliar with this type of trading- forex trading, it can all seem a bit too hard, but in fact the hardest part is getting started. Keep reading to find out the basics of FOREX trading and what you need to do to get involved.

In the past, foreign exchange (forex) was the territory of large players, such as multi-national corporations and national banks. However in the 1980s the rules were changed, giving smaller investors the change to participate using margin accounts. The popularity of FOREX trading has increased mainly because of these margin accounts, as people can participate with much smaller amounts of money. Basically, having a 100:1 margin account means that you can control $100,000 using only $1,000 of your own money.

Having said that, FOREX trading isn't always simple, and it's very important to make sure you educate yourself in order to make good investment decisions. Once you start, the trading process itself is simple, but there are risks involved. Learning about FOREX will help you to be profitable and is a good place for any beginner to start.

You will need to open a brokerage account. Generally, brokers are associated with a large financial institution such as a bank, and so can be considered reputable. They have to be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), which is administered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), to help protect the consumer from abusive trade practices and fraud.

Once you've filled out the necessary forms and provided ID, you can open your FOREX account. Part of the form will be a margin agreement. What this does is give the broker the right to interfere with any trade it feels has become too risky. This is reasonable, as most of the money used for trading will actually belong to the broker, and they need to be able to protect their interests.

Now you have your account, it's time to put some funds in there and begin trading. The size of your account is your choice - some brokers will allow you to have a mini account of $250, while others prefer a minimum of between $1000 and $2500. The broker will also determine how much leverage you're entitled to. So one client may be able to control $100,000 with his $1000, while another may only be able to control $80,000. The higher your level of leverage, the more money you have available for trading.

It's never a good idea to start out by putting all your money into the market in your first trade. It's vital to get some practice first, usually by paper trading. This involves working out transactions and pretending to trade them, without actually putting the money into the market. Paper trading is a great way to learn how the market works, and become familiar with the software tools your FOREX broker will provide to you. Most online brokers will allow you free paper trades for a period of time, so look for the ability to trade a demo account if you're choosing an online broker. If you find that your paper trading results in losses, you may want to learn some more before trading with real money.

Your FOREX broker will have their own software for you to use, but there are some tools that are common to all brokers. These include real time quotes, technical analysis and charges, news feeds and profit and loss analysis, just to name a few. You will want to access this sort of information, so make sure you can get it from your broker's site, or else consider using another broker. From your end, you will need a fairly modern computer, a good, fast Internet connection, and an up to date operating system. You should be able to access your broker account from any computer, which can be handy if you're traveling. Check that the broker can also be contacted by phone for trades, just in case you're without internet access at any stage.

One of the advantages of FOREX Trading is that trades don't incur brokerage fees, which is different to trading stocks. Brokers make their money based on the spread, which is the difference between bid and ask prices.

Forex Trading: 3 Key Tips For Huge Forex Profits

2008-03-13T05:05:00.001-07:00

Here we are going to look at the 3 key points you must consider if you wish to achieve forex trading success. Fail in any of these areas of forex trading and you will lose.

1. Get the Right Forex Trading Education

To make money at forex trading you don't need to work particularly hard - but you do need to get the right knowledge and learn forex trading. Most forex traders don't and fall victim to common forex trading myths. Here is a list of these common forex trading myths, believe any of them and you are guaranteed to lose.

- You can make money with forex day trading

- You can predict forex prices in advance

- You should buy low and sell high to make money

- You can trade off news stories

- You need a complicated forex trading strategy to win

- You can follow a simulated system from a vendor and make money

- Forex trading is easy

Believe any of the above and you can say goodbye to your equity.

If you want to get the right forex education and knowledge you need to spend some time learning the basics of trading forex and developing a strategy you understand, because this leads onto the next vital ingredient for currency trading success:

2. Confidence

Most novice forex traders simply think they can make money following someone else or trading news stories. They have no idea how and why the markets move and when they hit a few losses, they have no confidence in what they're doing and that's the end of their forex career and their equity.

Now let's look at the vital ingredient all traders need to succeed that flows from confidence:

3. Discipline

If you don't have confidence in what you are doing, then you will never have the discipline to sit through a period of losses and wait for winning trades to return.

One of the biggest myths of forex trading is that you can earn a consistent living and a regular monthly income - its rubbish you can't!

Even the best traders will spend weeks or months in periods of drawdown and you will too. Sure, you can make huge gains over the longer term - but they do not spread evenly across the year.

If you don't have the discipline to take short term periods of drawdown and still keep trading, you don't have a forex trading method at all.

If you want to win at forex trading the good news is:

If you work smart, you can learn to trade in just a few weeks.

If you avoid the myths and get the forex trading knowledge, you will be confident in what you are doing. From this understanding and confidence you will achieve discipline. You need the discipline to stay with your forex trading method through short term losses and stay with your system to achieve longer term success.

95% of traders lose and this group simply do not understand that to make big profits, you need to have a simple robust trading system; you have confidence in and the discipline to follow it.

If you understand the above you will be able to put the 3 building blocks of forex trading together and achieve forex trading success - it really is that simple.

Forex Trading: How To Make Money Fast With Forex Trading?

2008-03-13T05:02:00.000-07:00

So you want to make money fast? Well the good news is the method enclosed gives anyone the potential to not only make a living but build wealth and the even better news is - you don't need much money to get started and its simple - ANYONE can do it.

So what is the method for making money fast?

It is becoming a currency - forex (foreign exchange) trader from home.

Many people think forex trading is complicated or requires a lot of money neither is true. Anyone can learn forex trading, it's a specifically learned skill and today online, you can get started with just a few hundred dollars.

So how can you let alone making a living, make money fast on a few hundred dollars?

The answer is leverage.

Once you open an account online with a forex broker, they will let you trade 200 times your deposit. For example, put down $500.00 and they will let you trade $100,000 (200 x 500). Of course leverage can work for or against you - but if you cut your losses quickly and run your profits, you can start making a living from forex trading and build wealth over time.

Consider these other advantages to:

- You can learn forex trading in a few weeks

- You only need a computer and an internet connection

- You need just 30 minutes a day for trading forex online

- You can take holidays when you wish

- There are always opportunities as one currency rises another must fall

- Currencies are volatile and you can seek profits every day.

If you want to learn forex trading, the best way to trade is simply to study price action on a chart and take advantage of repetitive chart patterns, which can give you high odds set ups to trade. You won't win every trade but you will win more than you lose and build profits and with leverage working for you, you can make money fast with forex trading.

Why do chart patterns repeat?

Quite simply because human nature is constant and this means what has happened in the past, happens again and again.

If you learn to trade with forex charts you are not concerned with why prices move, you are simply going to take advantage of these moves when they do.

Forex trading is one of the few ways for trader's to start with small stakes, earn a living and even build wealth quickly. If you trade with discipline and learn the right knowledge you can soon be trading confidently and profitably, in the world's most exciting business.

If you have never considered making money fast by being a currency - forex trader from home - take a closer look at it and you may be glad you did.

* Article Source: Kelly Price, http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Kelly_Price

FOREX TRADING: How to Make Money with Currency Trading?

2008-03-13T05:01:00.000-07:00

For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX (FOReign EXchange market), refers to an international exchange market where currencies are bought and sold. The Foreign Exchange Market that we see today began in the 1970's, when free exchange rates and floating currencies were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the market determine the price of one currency against another, based upon supply and demand for that currency.

FOREX is a somewhat unique market for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few markets in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. With this much money moving this fast, it is clear why a single investor would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major currency. Furthermore, the liquidity of the market means that unlike some rarely traded stock, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.

Another somewhat unique characteristic of the FOREX money market is the variance of its participants. Investors find a number of reasons for entering the market, some as longer term hedge investors, while others utilize massive credit lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip stocks, which are usually most attractive only to the long term investor, the combination of rather constant but small daily fluctuations in currency prices, create an environment which attracts investors with a broad range of strategies.

How FOREX Works

Transactions in foreign currencies are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the NYSE, and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major currencies. After deciding what currency the investor would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for investors to speculate on currency prices by getting a credit line (which are available to those with capital as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and losses. This is called marginal trading.

Marginal Trading

Marginal trading is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term "lot" refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.

EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)

When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account.

Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

The two fundamental strategies in investing in FOREX are Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. Most small and medium sized investors in financial markets use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the assumption that all information about the market and a particular currency's future fluctuations is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the market and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of investor does is base his/her investments upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the market considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that history repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a currency, the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This investor does not try to outsmart the market, or even predict major long term trends, but simply looks at what has happened to that currency in the recent past, and predicts that the small fluctuations will generally continue just as they have before.

A Fundamental Analysis is one which analyzes the current situations in the country of the currency, including such things as its economy, its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a country's economy depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central Bank's interest rate, the national unemployment level, tax policy and the rate of inflation. An investor can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or transition will also have an effect on the market. Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that investors must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of market participants. For just as in any stock market, the value of a currency is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that currency, not solely on its reality.

Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX

FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments.

Rich McIver is a contributing writer for The Forex Blog: Currency Trading News (http://www.forexblog.org ).

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Rich_McIver

CURRENCY TRADING BASİCS: 10 Mistakes You Must Avoid to Win at Forex

2008-03-13T05:00:00.001-07:00

CURRENCY TRADING BASİCS: 10 Mistakes You Must Avoid to Win at Forex

Here we are going to give you some currency basics and this involves 10 essential tips you must do and 10 tips on common mistakes which you must avoid to enjoy long term currency trading success.

Let's start with 10 common errors you just avoid.

1. Don't Day Trade

It doesn't work because short term volatility is random and prices can and do vary anywhere in a day and you have the odds firmly against you and will lose longer term.

Ever seen a day trader with a long term track record of success? No neither have I, so avoid it and trade longer term trends where you can get the odds on your side.

2. Don't Try and Predict

Predicting is simply hoping and guessing and won't get you far - trade the reality of price change. No one knows the future and your predictions will end up as accurate as your horoscope!

3. Don't use Science

Don't believe anyone who tells you markets move to a scientific formula they don't - if they did we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market.

Trading is a game of odds - not certainties, but you can win if you know and trade the odds. You won't win every trade but over the longer term you can pile up huge FX profits.

4. Don't Trade Scared Money

If you can't afford to lose stay away, forex markets are extremely risky and if you are worried about losing your discipline will break down and you will lose

5. Don't follow a guru blindly

To follow a forex trading system you must have confidence in it and know how it works or you won't be able to follow it with discipline - if you can't follow it with discipline you have no system at all.

6. Don't believe experts

News stories are convincing - but that's all they are stories from journalists and they are normally dead wrong about every major market turning point. Don't believe everything you read!

7. Don't buy low and sell high

Great theory - doesn't work, it means you must predict again where highs or lows will form.

The fact is most major market moves start from new market highs NOT market lows. Learn to buy these breaks as the odds are in your favor and you normally see huge trends develop if, the breakout is from a valid resistance level.

8. Don't complicate your trading system

Simple systems work best, as they are more robust in the face of brutal market conditions - over-complicate your forex trading system and it will have too many inputs - which will break.

9. Acquire Knowledge for the sake of it

You will often hear people say "the more knowledge you have, the better" - but in forex trading you need just the right knowledge.

You don't get paid for work rate you get paid for being right and that's it.

10. Don't overtrade

Most novice traders simply over trade and lose.

They think the more often they trade with their forex trading system, the more chance they have of winning or if they are in the market they are bound to catch a major move - dead wrong.

You don't get a reward for trading often, so don't - only trade high odds set ups, be patient and wait for them.

If you want to learn forex trading correctly and get the right forex education, to enjoy forex success these are all errors to avoid. When developing your forex trading strategy keep the above points firmly in mind, these are the basic errors of currency trading and must be avoided if you want to get on the road to regular profits.

* Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Monica_Hendrix

CURRENCY TRADING BASİCS: 10 Mistakes You Must Avoid to Win at Forex

2008-03-13T05:00:00.000-07:00

CURRENCY TRADING BASİCS: 10 Mistakes You Must Avoid to Win at Forex

Here we are going to give you some currency basics and this involves 10 essential tips you must do and 10 tips on common mistakes which you must avoid to enjoy long term currency trading success.

Let's start with 10 common errors you just avoid.

1. Don't Day Trade

It doesn't work because short term volatility is random and prices can and do vary anywhere in a day and you have the odds firmly against you and will lose longer term.

Ever seen a day trader with a long term track record of success? No neither have I, so avoid it and trade longer term trends where you can get the odds on your side.

2. Don't Try and Predict

Predicting is simply hoping and guessing and won't get you far - trade the reality of price change. No one knows the future and your predictions will end up as accurate as your horoscope!

3. Don't use Science

Don't believe anyone who tells you markets move to a scientific formula they don't - if they did we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market.

Trading is a game of odds - not certainties, but you can win if you know and trade the odds. You won't win every trade but over the longer term you can pile up huge FX profits.

4. Don't Trade Scared Money

If you can't afford to lose stay away, forex markets are extremely risky and if you are worried about losing your discipline will break down and you will lose

5. Don't follow a guru blindly

6. Don't believe experts

News stories are convincing - but that's all they are stories from journalists and they are normally dead wrong about every major market turning point. Don't believe everything you read!

7. Don't buy low and sell high

Great theory - doesn't work, it means you must predict again where highs or lows will form.

8. Don't complicate your trading system

Simple systems work best, as they are more robust in the face of brutal market conditions - over-complicate your forex trading system and it will have too many inputs - which will break.

9. Acquire Knowledge for the sake of it

You will often hear people say "the more knowledge you have, the better" - but in forex trading you need just the right knowledge.

You don't get paid for work rate you get paid for being right and that's it.

10. Don't overtrade

Most novice traders simply over trade and lose.

They think the more often they trade with their forex trading system, the more chance they have of winning or if they are in the market they are bound to catch a major move - dead wrong.

You don't get a reward for trading often, so don't - only trade high odds set ups, be patient and wait for them.

* Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Monica_Hendrix

ONLINE FOREX TRADING: An Introduction to Forex Signals

2008-03-13T04:59:00.000-07:00

ONLINE FOREX TRADING: An Introduction to Forex Signals

Forex Signals, also known as 'technical indicators', are data points used in the prediction of currency movements. This article will examine three of the most popular Forex signals in use today.

Signal #1: Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI indicator measures the ratio of upwards to downwards movements on the market, and the result is normalized to a range between 0-100.

When an instrument, such as a currency pair, moves to 70 or greater on the RSI, the instrument is said to be 'over bought'. Likewise, when a currency pair moves to 30 or below on the RSI, it is said to be 'over sold'.

So, the Relative Strength Index is essentially a broad measurement of market demand for a given currency. Keep in mind, however, that spikes and drops may occur for any number of reasons, and do not necessarily indicate the development of a trend.

Relative Strength is useful in spot trading and some mid-range strategies, but it is not the only indicator to watch, particularly if you intend to employ long-range holding strategies.

Signal #2: Stochastic Oscillators (SO)

Charts derived from Stochastic oscillations are also used to indicate 'over bought' and 'over sold' conditions for currencies on the exchange market. These conditions are typically expressed on a percentage scale from 0-100%.

The S.O. scale method was derived from historical observation of market phenomena centered around closing trades. It was observed that - during the period towards closing - both the upwards and downwards trends in conditions tend to congregate towards the extreme ends of the scale.

These Buying and Selling conditions are charted using two lines: %K and %D. A divergence between these lines against the price action of a currency is a strong trading signal.

Signal #3: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

This signal plots two lines of movement: the MACD line, and the signal/trigger line.

The MACD line represents the difference between two, exponential moving averages and the signal line -- which is the exponential moving average of that difference. This is a tricky concept to grasp, so let's look at MACD as an equation.

We'll let each exponential moving average be represented by EMA-0, EMA-1, EMA-2, etc..

The Signal Line, then, is equal to: EMA (EMA0 - EMA-1... + ...EMA-2 - EMA-3...+..) and so on.

Basically, the signal line is reflecting the exponential moving average of moving averages over time, such that:

Signal Line = EMA (EMA-0 minus EMA-1), and..

The MACD line = (EMA0-EMA1) - signal line.

The MACD and Signal Lines are charted around a 'Zero' line, the extreme limits of which represent 'slow MACD movement' and 'fast MACD movement', respectively. Whenever the MACD and Signal Lines cross, it is an indicator that a change in trend is likely.

This wraps up our look at three of the most popular Forex signals. They are by no means the only ones. Some of the other, more technically complex signals includes indicators derived from Gann numbers and Elliot Wave theory.

The good news is that you do not have to be a math whiz to make use of these indicators, as there are plenty of commercial software solutions on the market.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Karen_Kaminski

BEWARE FOREX SCAMS: 9 Warning Signs for Foreign Exchange Trading Fraud

2008-03-13T04:58:00.000-07:00

A forex scam is any trading scheme used to defraud individual traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the forex market (foreign exchange market). The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the forex market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.

A self-regulating body for the forex market, the National Futures Association, warns traders in a forex training presentation of the risk in trading currency. “As stated at the beginning of this program, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in forex trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation.“

The CFTC lists 9 warning signs for forex trading fraud:

1. Stay away from opportunities that seem too good to be true

Always remember that there is no such thing as a "free lunch." Be especially cautious if you have acquired a large sum of cash recently and are looking for a safe investment vehicle. In particular, retirees with access to their retirement funds may be attractive targets for fraudulent operators. Getting your money back once it is gone can be difficult or impossible.

2. Avoid any company that predicts or guarantees large profits

Be extremely wary of companies that guarantee profits, or that tout extremely high performance. In many cases, those claims are false.

The following are examples of statements that either are or most likely are fraudulent:

"Whether the market moves up or down, in the currency market you will make a profit."

"Make $1000 per week, every week"

"We are out-performing domestic investments."

"The main advantage of the forex markets is that there is no bear market."

"We guarantee you will make at least a 30-40% rate of return within two months."

3. Stay Away From Companies That Promise Little or No Financial Risk

Be suspicious of companies that downplay risks or state that written risk disclosure statements are routine formalities imposed by the government.

The currency futures and options markets are volatile and contain substantial risks for unsophisticated customers. The currency futures and options markets are not the place to put any funds that you cannot afford to lose. For example, retirement funds should not be used for currency trading. You can lose most or all of those funds very quickly trading foreign currency futures or options contracts. Therefore, beware of companies that make the following types of statements:

"With a $10,000 deposit, the maximum you can lose is $200 to $250 per day."

"We promise to recover any losses you have."

"Your investment is secure."

4. Don't Trade on Margin Unless You Understand What It Means

Margin trading can make you responsible for losses that greatly exceed the dollar amount you deposited.

Many currency traders ask customers to give them money, which they sometimes refer to as "margin," often sums in the range of $1,000 to $5,000. However, those amounts, which are relatively small in the currency markets, actually control far larger dollar amounts of trading, a fact that often is poorly explained to customers.

Don't trade on margin unless you fully understand what you are doing and are prepared to accept losses that exceed the margin amounts you paid.

5. Question Firms That Claim To Trade in the "Interbank Market"

Be wary of firms that claim that you can or should trade in the "interbank market," or that they will do so on your behalf.

Unregulated, fraudulent currency trading firms often tell retail customers that their funds are traded in the "interbank market," where good prices can be obtained. Firms that trade currencies in the interbank market, however, are most likely to be banks, investment banks and large corporations, since the term "interbank market" refers simply to a loose network of currency transactions negotiated between financial institutions and other large companies.

6. Be Wary of Sending or Transferring Cash on the Internet, By Mail or Otherwise

Be especially alert to the dangers of trading online; it is very easy to transfer funds online, but often can be impossible to get a refund.

It costs an Internet advertiser just pennies per day to reach a potential audience of millions of persons, and phony currency trading firms have seized upon the Internet as an inexpensive and effective way of reaching a large pool of potential customers.

Companies offering forex trading online will usually be located in different legal jurisdictions to you. Even if they display an address or any other information identifying their nationality on their Web site it may be false. Be aware that if you transfer funds to foreign firms it may be very difficult or impossible to recover your funds.

7. Forex Scams Often Target Members of Ethnic Minorities

Some forex trading scams target potential customers in ethnic communities, particularly persons in the Russian, Chinese and Indian immigrant communities, through advertisements in ethnic newspapers and television "infomercials."

Sometimes those advertisements offer so-called "job opportunities" for "account executives" to trade foreign currencies. Be aware that "account executives" that are hired might be expected to use their own money for forex trading, as well as to recruit their family and friends to do likewise. What appears to be a promising job opportunity often is another way many of these companies lure customers into parting with their cash.

8. Be Sure You Get the Company's Performance Track Record

Get as much information as possible about the firm's or individual's performance record on behalf of other clients. You should be aware, however, that It may be difficult or impossible to do so, or to verify the information you receive. While firms and individuals are not required to provide this information, you should be wary of any person who is not willing to do so or who provides you with incomplete information. However, keep in mind, even if you do receive a glossy brochure or sophisticated-looking charts, that the information they contain might be false.

9. Don't Deal With Anyone Who Won't Give You His Background

Plan to do a lot of checking of any information you receive to be sure that the company is and does exactly what it says.

Get the background of the persons running or promoting the company, if possible. Do not rely solely on oral statements or promises from the firm's employees. Ask for all information in written form.

If you cannot satisfy yourself that the persons with whom you are dealing are completely legitimate and above-board, the wisest course of action is to avoid forex trading through those companies.

http://guide-forex.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html

Forex Trading Guide: Tips for Beginners

2008-03-13T04:57:00.001-07:00

Forex Trading could be as simple as it is advertised, but before you venture into online forex trading, kindly demo trade by downloading the trading platform from any reputable Forex broker's website.

I highly recommend that you only open an account with a registered broker. Having said that, most forex brokers provide ''free of charge'', an online forex trading platform that is integrated, with decent charting software. I believe you can consider the data reliable and the order of execution proper as long as you are dealing with a registered broker. However, some forex trading platforms and charting software are more intuitive and easier to use than others. So, in selecting a broker, you want to open a demo account first and get a feel of that broker's platform to see if it is comfortable for you. You will be able to determine this with a little paper trading over a few days and weeks. Also, you want to be sure that your broker's charting software is able to plot the indicators that your trading methods call for. Most will be able to do this, but not all.

Warning! Do not open a live forex account when you are demo-trading because you could be tempted to trade live without adequate knowledge.

Select the pair of currencies with which you wish to make a forex deal.

Determine the volume (the amount of the deal).

Deposit the "margin" {collateral} needed to facilitate the deal. Usually, this is only a very small portion of the whole deal, say: 1% or 1:100. Before you finally activate the deal, you can still "freeze" it for a few seconds. That enables you to either change the terms, or accept them as they are, or all together, regret the whole deal.

When your forex deal is running, you can monitor its status and check scenarios online whenever you wish. You may change some terms in the deal or close it. Ultimately, you remain in control and only you can decide when the tune is right to cash in your profit. Some forex brokers will even let you determine a "take profit" rate, with which the deal will close automatically for you.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Anthony_Obiajulu

Forex Trading Basics - a simple explanation on trading forex

2008-03-13T04:55:00.000-07:00

Introduction

This is a very basic explanation of the Forex market. I remember when I first heard the term "Forex" I had no idea what the term meant or why I should be interested. So I did some Internet searching, as you may have done to find this information, and learned a little about the Forex. Since then I have gone on to make a nice chunk of change in the Forex markets.

I am going to begin with the very basics, which may be too basic for some and I will get into some deeper information later on.

I. What is Forex???

Forex is a shortening of "Foreign Exchange" and is the market where foreign currencies are bought and sold. Allow me to give a very simple example. My wife and I spent almost a week in Rome. In Rome we cannot use American Dollars we have to use Euro. At the airport, I handed the clerk 100 American dollars and recieved in return about 68.50 Euro. You could say the exchange rate was .685. While in Rome I used ATM machines to get more money and my US bank and the Italian bank whose ATM I had used did a similar transaction for me.

A week later when I was back at the airport to go home (after having a GREAT time!) I turned in my leftover Euro for American dollars since I will not need Euro again for a while. I had 65 Euro left and received 100 American dollars. The exchange rate was not .65 because the dollar had "weakened". Each dollar was now worth fewer Euros.

To give that a concrete example, if I were to go to 7-11 in Las Vegas to buy a $1.00 can of Coke, I would have paid 68 Euro cents the day I left but only 65 Euro cents the day I came back. My Euro cents were worth more. On the other end, if I went into a Roman café to buy a 1 Euro cup of cappuccino, I would have had to pay $1.47. On the last day of my trip I would have paid $1.53 for the same cup of cappuccino.

A simpler way of saying all this is that my dollars had lost value.

As an investor, if I would have sold $1000 the day I left and bought Euro and made the reverse exchange when I came back, I would have had a profit of $40 or a 4% return in one week.

Not bad!

II. So who would bother buying and selling currencies? And when did all this start? Let's be serious, I don't go to Rome that often. As a matter of fact, my wife and I have vacationed in Europe a total of one time! Why would so many dollars and Euros be exchanged?

Aside from all the many travelers who do go back and forth, the bulk of the foreign currencies that are exchanged are done so for large corporations. As an example, Ford Motor Company sells many, many cars in Europe. Let's say that Ford expects to ship 50 cars to Europe one month from today and each will sell for $20,000 for a total of $1 million which today is worth 650,000 Euros. Ford will start building those cars today and does not want to have to worry about how much the dollar and the Euro might move between now and then. They could simply buy 650,000 Euro today that will sell back the day they get their payment one month from now. That way they know today that they have $1 million dollars in hand, no matter what happens to the exchange rate.

All this trading has happened for years and years. Think back to Marco Polo visiting China from Italy. He probably had some Italian gold coins with which he bought silk in China. There was no standard then and Old Marco did the best he could for his gold coins.

In the late 1800's there was a gold standard, which set the value of each country's currency. The gold standard was replaced in 1944 as World War Two was coming to its finish by the Bretton-Woods Agreement, which set the price of currencies against the US dollar. This era ended in 1971 when the dollar no longer had a set value compared to gold. Since 1973, most major currencies have been freely traded with prices fluctuating daily.

Some currencies still did not fluctuate for a long time. The biggest example is the Chinese Yuan, which the government of China kept at a set rate of about 8.28 Yuan per dollar for many years. Some would say it still does not float freely but there certainly is more fluctuation.

The Euro came into existence on January 1, 2001 and started being used in many European countries on January 1, 2002.

III. Where is the Forex and how did it start?

You have probably heard about the New York Stock Exchange and seen pictures of the traders screaming frantically trying to buy or sell stocks. You also may have watched some famous person ring the bell at 9:30AM to open the trading. Well, you already know that the Forex does not have an opening bell because it is always being traded! But if it did have an opening bell, where would it be?

Well actually, the Forex does have a start and end time. The Forex "closes" at 4:30 PM on Friday, New York time and opens again at 5PM on Sunday, New York time. But there is no opening bell! There is not one place where the Forex is traded because it is all electronic. Having said that, London does the largest share of trading followed by New York, Tokyo and Singapore.

I am sure you have heard that we now have a global economy and thanks to that global economy, American Dollars and Euros and Great British Pounds and Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollars, etc, etc are being exchanged back and forth all day every day. Since all these currencies are used in all the different time zones around the world, the Forex is truly a market that doesn't sleep. You could buy some Euro before you leave for work in the morning at 7AM, sell it when you get home from work at 6PM, buy it back before you leave for a movie at 7:30PM, sell it again when you get home at 11PM and even buy again at 2 in the morning when you get you get up to change the baby's diaper.

Assuming you live on the East Coast of the US, when you are going to work at 7AM, a trader in London is about to go to lunch at noon. When you get home at 6PM, a trader in Los Angeles is about to go for his 3PM coffee break. When you leave for the movie at 7:30 PM, a trader in Anchorage, Alaska is thinking about lunch at 11:30 AM. When you come back from the movie at 11PM, a trader in Tokyo Japan just came back from lunch at 1 PM. And while you are changing the baby's diaper at 2AM, a trader in Rome is dropping off the baby at day care at 8AM. So whenever you are ready to trade, so is someone else in some other place in the world.

IV. Currency Pairs and Interest

Whenever you are trading the Forex, you are always trading a currency pair. The currency pair most traded in the world is the United States Dollar and the Euro. In large part because of liquidity - there are always dollars and Euro flowing back and forth and you can easily buy and sell.

When trading the Forex, three letters are used to identify the currency pair and the order is standardized. When you start trading the Forex, you will most probably begin trading the EUR/USD, which is the Euro, US Dollar pair. You might also trade the GBP/USD, which is the Great British Pound, US Dollar pair. I also trade the USD/CHF or the US Dollar, Swiss Franc pair.

You don't have to trade dollars. You can also trade the EUR/CHF or the CHF/GBP. There is also the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar.

One of the ways that people make money trading the Forex is by taking advantage of the different interest rates set by central banks. It is hard to not hear news about the US Federal Reserve Bank interest rate meetings. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan was often in the news saying (or not saying) of the rates would go up or down. The same thing happens at the central bank of any country that has a currency.

As I write this, the interest rate in the US is 4.25%, the interest rate set by the central bank in Europe is 4.00%. What I could do is borrow 1 Euro from the bank and owe 1.04 Euro one year from today. If I invest that Euro in a US bank, I will receive 4.25% interest or ¼ percent more. So when I pay back that Euro at the end of the year, I could keep .25 Euro cents. I know that that is not a lot, but what about the difference between the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc, where the interest rate is 2.75%. If I borrow 1 Swiss Franc and invest it the US for one year and then return the money, I would get to keep 1.5 Swiss Franc cents. That is 1.5% on money that was not even mine! I borrowed it!

Of course these are ideal figures that don't completely reflect reality, but there is money to be made in this way. Especially if you consider the difference between the interest rate in New Zealand - 8.25% and Japan, .5%. And you will son find out how to multiply these numbers by 100,000!

V Leverage

Leverage is a simple. In physics the concept of leverage tells us how to multiply a force. I cannot pick up a car by myself to change the tire. But if I use leverage by employing the car jack, I can lift the car and change the tire.

In finance, leverage is similar. When my wife and I bought our first home, we did not have $200,000 in the bank with which to purchase the home. But we were able to take the money we did have, say $20,000 and leverage it by taking a mortgage. The same way I can multiply my strength by 500 times to lift the car here I multiplied my money by 10 times to purchase a home.

One of the really great things about leverage in investments comes when you make money.

My wife and I did really well on the purchase of our home. As I said we bought it for $200,000 and sold it about 10 years later for $600,000. Now you may think we had a 300% profit by figuring 200,000 times 300% equals 600,000. But I would disagree. I would say we had a 3000% profit. The math that I would do is 20,000 (the amount that came out of my bank account) times 3,000% equals 600,000. (With the example of a house there is more information to take into account like interest and principal, others would argue that I would have been paying rent anyway.)

In the Forex market, leverage is very important because your broker will lend you money to invest. It is easy for them because they know how much you have in your account and can sell your positions if they feel that the value will go to less than zero - this is called a margin call. Don't worry, you will never have to put up more money, but, yes, you can loose the money you invested if you choose really poorly.

Many brokerages will multiply - or leverage - every dollar you put in by allowing you to purchase $100,000 worth of currency. So is the EUR/USD is at $1.45, your $1.45 investment will buy 100,000 Euro.

Remember when I told you about interest I wrote that you could make .25 Euro cents per year. That just became 250 Euro, which is quite significant. In fact you will probably only use a 10% margin of your account, which brings that down, but leverage still makes you Forex account bring in significant amounts of interest.

Conclusion

The Forex market is a rather straightforward investment vehicle. Is it a surefire method of investing? No. No investment is surefire, not even US Treasury bills. Treasury bills have a lot less risk and you know exactly what to expect, 5%, barely above inflation. But using the correct strategies, Forex can be a lucrative part of your overall investment strategy.

by Shaya Kass

* Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Shaya_Kass

The Best Hours for Forex Trading

2008-03-13T04:54:00.000-07:00

Forex (foreign exchange) is a highly dynamic market with lots of price oscillations in a single minute, this characteristic of the Forex market allows traders to enter the market many times a day and pull some profit from these number of trades. If you want to find an appreciable number of profitable trades you need to enter the forex market at the best period of time, i.e., when the activity, the volume of transactions, is the highest. More information can be found at http://www.1-forex.com

The main timing characteristics of the Forex market are the following:

* The Forex market is a 24 hour market – It starts from Sunday 5.00 pm EST through Friday 4.00 pm EST. Rollover at 5.00 pm EST

* Forex Trading begins in New Zealand, followed by Australia, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and America

* The US & UK account for more than 50% of the market transactions

* Forex Major markets: London, New York, Tokyo

* Nearly two-thirds of New York activity occurs in the morning hours while European markets are open

* Forex Trading activity is heaviest when major markets overlap.

From this timing facts, it is quite visible that at any given time, somebody somewhere in the world is buying and selling currencies. As one forex market closes, another forex market opens. Business hours overlap, and the exchange continues as day becomes night and night becomes day.

The great liquidity of Forex (foreign exchange), combined with a market that's traded 5.5 days a week around the world, offers you an exceptional independence and choices to trade Forex when you want to and not when the market wants you to do it. Trades always develop with relatively the same frequency, regardless of time. As long as the Forex market is open, there is about the same probability that you will find a trade, whenever your look for it.

During each trading day, the total Forex “volume” is determined by the number of markets that are open and the times each of these markets overlap one another.

Forex market volume of transactions remains high during the whole day, but peaks highest when the Asian market (including Australia & New Zealand), the European market and the U.S. market are open simultaneously. And these are forex trading hours you must target in order to find the highest possible amount of profitable trades.

This is the breakdown of OPEN Market Times for your reference:

New York Market trade times: 8am-4pm EST
London Market trade times: 2am-12Noon EST
Great Britain Market trade times: 3am-11am EST
Tokyo Market trade times: 8pm-4am EST
Australia Market trade times: 7pm-3am EST

If you pay attention to the last schedule you will notice that there are two times when two of the major markets overlap during trading hours; between 2am and 4am EST (Asian/European) and between 8am to 12pm EST(European/N. American).

So here you have it, if you want to find a great number of profitable trades, focus on the hours when the markets tend to make their biggest moves, i.e., during these big markets overlaps, which therefore, are usually the Best Times to Trade.

* Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Adrian_Pablo

Forex Trading Guide: What are the World Time Zones?

2008-03-13T04:53:00.000-07:00

GMT, EST, PST, and CET

GMT (also known as UTC or Coordinated Universal Time) is the time along the Prime Meridian (0 degree longitude) which passes through Greenwich, England. It is the standard time used in the field of astronomy, meteorology and other scientific disciplines around the world, and the standard used to reference market data from all countries around the world participating in the world market.

EST or Eastern Standard Time is five(5) hours late of GMT, while PST or Pacific Standard Time is late by eight(8) hours. Hence, if a market data will be coming out in EST, just add five(5) hours to get the time in GMT. To convert PST to GMT, just add eight(8) hours.

CET or Central European Time is one(1) hour ahead of Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). Note that during summer daylight saving time/summer time is observed, and CEST (Central European Summer Time) is used instead (GMT + 2 Hours).

Daylight Saving Time (DST)

From the last Sunday in October through the last Saturday in March standard time in the United States of America and other European countries is noted as Central Standard Time (CST), (EST), (MST) or (PST). During summer, that is, from the last Sunday in March through the Last Saturday in October, daylight savings time is noted as Central Daylight Time (CDT), (EDT), (MDT) or (PDT) which is one hour added to standard time. So to convert EDT to GMT, just add four(4) hours. Below is a summary of the conversions, this time converting GMT to EST or PST.

Eastern Standard Time (EST)	GMT - 5 hours = EST
Central Standard Time (CST)	GMT - 6 hours = CST
Pacific Standard Time (PST)	GMT - 8 hours = PST
Central European Time (CET)	GMT + 1 hour = CET
Daylight Savings Time (DST)
Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)	GMT - 4 hours = EDT
Central Daylight Time (CDT)	GMT - 5 hours = CDT
Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)	GMT - 7 hours = PDT
Central European Summer Time (CEST)	GMT + 2 hours = CEST

Forex Trading: What Are Forex Trading Software?

2008-03-13T04:51:00.000-07:00

As you start learning more about the Forex trading world and the many opportunities it can offer to foreign exchange traders of all sizes you will realize about the existence of many tools available to the Forex trader for analyzing the market as well as for buying and selling currency pairs. These software tools are a necessity for the Forex trader because of the volume and volatility that characterizes the Forex market.

In order to make successful trades, the Forex trader needs lots of information and current exchange rates, the most evident information you can find, are just the tip of the iceberg. A professional forex trader needs historical data as well as current information about political and economic conditions that could affect the behavior of currency prices.

Successful Forex trading is all about being able to predict whether a currency will fall or rise against another currency allowing the Forex trader to profit from those currency movements.

Most Forex trading can be characterized as speculative, this means the trader makes buying decisions based on predictions on how the market will respond to current political or economic events, and in order to be profitable with speculation the trader requires up-to-the-minute information and an analysis of current and historical conditions.

A number of tools are available to help you as a Forex trader, so you can minimize your risk and maximize your profits. For example:

Pivot Points, can be used to predict the up or down movements of currency prices. They are calculated as an average of the currencies high, low and closing prices. Pivot Points can tell you whether prices are inside the normal trading range or in the extreme trading ranges.

Risk Probability Calculator (RPC) can be used to identify forex trades that have more potential gain than potential loss. The RPC can also help you target exit points to end the trade.

Pip Value Calculators can tell you the actual profit or loss that will result from movements in the Forex markets.

Provided you have downloaded your brokers trading station software, and once you have decided which currency pair to trade, you can log in to the trading station and then enter the desired currency pair as the current exchange rate appears on the screen. The amount of the trade is entered, this means, how much currency you are willing to buy. Some brokers may even give you the option of specifying the amount you wish to risk, automatically setting a 'stop loss rate' into your order.

After the details of the forex trade are entered, you will be taken to a confirmation screen where you can accept the current price on screen. You may be given the option of 'freezing' the quoted price, meaning the price of your transaction is exactly what you see on screen without any slippage. Accept the rate and you have placed your trade.

With the use of software forex tools you can enter a 'stop loss rate' to automatically sell the currency if it falls below a certain rate, avoiding possible losses and giving you peace of mind. But this is not all the automation you can get, you can also enter a 'take profit rate' to automatically sell the currency when it reaches a certain level. This way you won't need to monitor your account all day in order to take profits once an acceptable number of pips have been earned.

38 Steps to Becoming a Successful Forex Trader!

2008-03-13T04:50:00.000-07:00

1. We accumulate forex trading information - buying books, going to seminars and researching.

2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.

3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.

4. We accumulate more information.

5. We switch the currencies and time frames we are currently following.

6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.

7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.

8. We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.

9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.

10. We switch currencies and time frames again.

11. We search for more trading information.

12. We go back into the market and continue to donate.

13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.

14. We start to understand that trading success is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.

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Many Traders Will Give Up At This Point As They Realize That Forex Trade Is Not As Easy As It Looked And That Hard Work and Study Will Be Required

But Some Do Not Give Up ...
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15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a real methodology.

16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.

17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.

18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.

19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.

20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.

21. We go back into the market and continue to donate.

22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the trade methodology.

23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.

24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are erratic.

25. We know we are close.

26. We go back and research our rules.

27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.

28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.

29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow them.

30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.

31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.

32. We master our methodology and trading rules.

33. We begin to consistently make money.

34. We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.

35. We continue to learn our lessons.

36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our position size.

37. We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.

38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of.

* Source: Unfortunately I couldn't find the name of the author of these very helpful steps, if you are the author or know the name of the author, I will be happy to add it

Forex Trading: What Are The Rules to Successful Forex Trading?

2008-03-13T04:49:00.000-07:00

Keen on starting FOREX trading? Why would you not be? Many beginning FOREX traders are captivated by the allure of easy money. FOREX websites offer 'risk-free' trading, 'high returns' and 'low investment' these claims have a grain of truth in them, but the reality of FOREX is a bit more complex. As with anything in life, what you put in will determine what you get out.

There are two common mistakes that many beginner traders make: 1) trading without a strategy and 2) letting emotions rule their decisions. After opening a FOREX trading account it may be tempting to dive right in and start trading. Watching the movements of EUR/USD for example, you may feel that you are letting an opportunity pass you by if you don't enter the market immediately. You buy and watch the market move against you. You panic and sell, only to see the market recover.

This kind of undisciplined approach to FOREX is guaranteed to lose you money, and have you waste your time. FOREX traders need to have a rational trading strategy and not allow emotions to rule their trading decisions.

The two emotions prevalent in the above example is greed (entering the market immediately) and fear (selling when the market temporarily moves against you). Investing and these two emotions do not get at all. Keep them out of your trading and you will see results.

To make rational trading decisions the FOREX trader must be well-educated in market movements. He must be able to apply technical studies to charts and plot out entry and exit points. He must take advantage of the various types of orders to minimize his risk and maximize his profit.

The first step in becoming a successful FOREX trader is to understand the market and the forces behind it. Who trades FOREX and why? Who is successful and why are they successful? This knowledge will allow you to identify successful trading strategies and use them as models for your own.

There are 5 major groups of investors who participate in FOREX: Governments, Banks, Corporations, Investment Funds, and traders. Each group has varying objectives, but the one thing that all the groups (except traders) have in common is external control. Every organization has rules and guidelines for trading currencies and can be held accountable for their trading decisions. Individual traders, on the other hand, are accountable only to themselves.

If you do not keep yourself in check, nobody else will. Why should they worry if you aimlessly waste your money?

This means that the trader who lacks rules and guidelines is playing a losing game. Large organizations and educated traders approach the FOREX with strategies, and if you hope to succeed as a FOREX trader you must play by the same rules. That is studying these strategies and rules before starting to trade is so important.

FOREX Trading Philosophy - Money Management

Money management is part and parcel of any trading strategy. Besides knowing which currencies to trade and recognizing entry and exit signals, the successful trader has to manage his resources and integrate money management into his trading plan. Position size, margin, recent profits and losses, and contingency plans all need to be considered before entering the market.

This may sound like Greek now! If it does, you have more reason to get to know these terms. Knowledge will empower you on any investment market, including FOREX.

There are various strategies for approaching money management. Many of them rely on the calculation of core equity. Core equity is your starting balance minus the money used in open positions. If the starting balance is $10,000 and you have $1000 in open positions your core equity is $9000.

When entering a position try to limit risk to 1% to 3% of each trade. This means that if you are trading a standard FOREX lot of $100,000 you should limit your risk to $1000 to $3000 preferably $1000. You do this by placing a stop loss order 100 pips (when 1 pip = $10) above or below your entry position.

As your core equity rises or falls you can adjust the dollar amount of your risk. With a starting balance of $10,000 and one open position your core equity is $9000. If you wish to add a second open position, your core equity would fall to $8000 and you should limit your risk to $900. Risk in a third position should be limited to $800.

By the same principal you can also raise your risk level as your core equity rises. If you have been trading successfully and made a $5000 profit, your core equity is now $15,000. You could raise your risk to $1500 per transaction. Alternatively, you could risk more from the profit than from the original starting balance. Some traders may risk up to 5% against their realized profits ($5,000 on a $100,000 lot) for greater profit potential.

As you can see, the novice needs to get through quite a bit of education, understanding and planning before those 'risk-free' trading, 'high returns' and 'low investment' promises will come into play. What are you waiting for? Get yourself a decent FOREX Trading Education. If you need more information, feel free to visit http://www.investing-smarter.com.

* by Dries Cronje - http://www.investing-smarter.com

How To Choose a FOREX Broker?

2008-03-13T04:46:00.000-07:00

With currency trading becoming ever more popular, the number of brokers is growing at a rapid rate. What should one look at when deciding which broker to open an account with? These are the important points to consider.

Spread

Because currencies, unlike futures and stocks, are not traded through a central exchange, the spread can be different depending on the broker you use, so it's well worth checking a few out before you open an account. Most forex brokers publish live or delayed prices on their websites so you can compare spreads, but check if the spread is fixed or variable. A fixed spread means exactly that - it will always be the same no matter what time of day or night it is. Some brokers use a variable spread, which might appear to be nice and small when the market is quiet, but when things get busy they can widen the spread which means the market must move more in your favor before you start to make a profit. Fixed spreads are generally slightly wider than the variable spreads are when at their narrowest, but over the long term fixed can be safer.

Execution

Some brokers will show live prices on their trading platform, but will they honor them when it comes to pushing the Buy or Sell button? The best way to find out is to open a demo account and give them a test drive. This will also give you the opportunity to see what the speed of execution is like - when you want to buy, you want to buy now, not sit around waiting for ten minutes whilst your order is confirmed!

Trading Platform

Good trading software will show live prices that you can actually trade at, not just indicative quotes. It will offer Limit and Stop orders, and ideally will let you attach these to your entry order. One-Cancels-Other orders are another useful feature - they mean you can set up your trade and then leave the software to get on with it. And the most important feature of all - can you actually understand the platform? Having all the bells and whistles is of no use if you can't use them, so again, get a demo account and give it a go.

Support

Forex is a 24 hour market, so your broker should offer 24 hour support. You might not be trading at 3am, but that could be what time it is in your brokers head office on the other side of the planet, so make sure there will be somebody there to pick up the phone if things go wrong. You should also check if you can close positions over the phone - essential in case your PC or internet connection crash at a critical moment.

Backing

Finally, before opening an account do a little homework and find out about the company. Forex brokers are regulated, but that doesn't mean they all have equal backing. If the market collapses, you want to know that they've got the reserves to cope with it and will still be around when you decide to withdraw your cash. If a broker is elusive when it comes to questions about their parentage and financial backing, then steer clear.

In Conclusion

Choosing a forex broker isn't difficult, but don't rush the decision. Check out a few, and always get a demo account first to make sure you're happy with the way everything works before sending off your opening balance.

Beginners Guide to Forek Trading

About The Author

-Geoff Turnbull is a full time day trader, and a contributor to http://www.forexheaven.com

FOREX TRADING: How to Make Money with Currency Trading?

2008-03-13T04:44:00.000-07:00

How FOREX Works

Marginal Trading

Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX

2008-03-13T04:41:00.000-07:00